Possible speculative Long opportunity looming, medium to high risk contrarian trade.
Here's the scenario:
Sparse falling wedge. Pullback ongoing, after some breakout attempt on low volume. Pattern still unconfimed, be vigilant.
Slowing momentum, close to neutral, as witnessed by RSI, MACD and Bollinger bands.
30.000-31.000$ area boosting triple support: lower BB, Weekly MA50, support trendline.
Persisting bullish divergence
Wedge ongoing on RSI, close to congestion and hinting upcoming volatility within days ( within first 10-14 days of july ).
Hashrate seemingly bottoming. We'll have an umprecedented difficulty correction (-26%) within hours. This should ideally help ending current miners capitulation and hopefully close a pocket on hash ribbons and hopefully paint a Blue Dot within July.
Short term: 6H hinting a possible bounce within 12/24 hours:
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All in all i can see some speculative bullish opportunity here, at breakout (either on price chart or RSI) or as close to support as possible (hence reducing the % of loss). A contrarian Long here does not go without risks.
Opportunity would be invalidated by loss of the critical support area on weekly close.
Hence do your own diligence and manage YOUR risk. Have a SL.
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Needs to confirm breakout and achieve parabolic SAR reversal as a first step.
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We just had the biggest negative difficulty adjustment in Bitcoin history, -28%. Eyes on hashrate now, let's bottom out and close this big pocket:
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(ONLY For those asking me for intraday scenario) Top of channel and resistance:
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Short term TF quite stretched already. It should try to flip 6H Parabolic SAR.
We' ll see.
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It's stretched, see the rising wedge.
Volume or pullback. In case of a retracement bulls should *try* to keep price above the 34.000$ area. It would be good for some hypothetical second leg up.
Anyway, soon to say. Protect your position.
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(and ONLY for intraday folks) Resistance surfin' ... Watch it.
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Minor breakout attempt ongoing, not much volume for now:
Is this the big move we were waiting for ? Not yet.
Still within the wedge on RSI:
That's the breakout we need to watch now. Either way.
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Test ongoing.
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Overall picture is unchanged.
Still sideways and awaiting a signal from RSI.
We have an ascending triangle candidate, worth watching it as well.
Overall support area rising. MA50/W support moved up over 31.400$. Lower BB rose as Bollinger Bands are shrinking. That's hinting price congestion before a strong move.
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Bulls should find a breakout of resistance soon, or regret it.
4th touch of resistance.
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Meanwhile on TF 1D BB are shrinking and start intersecting Keltner channel. It means price is close to congestion, so look out for a squeeze at any time.
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By the way, it's a couple weeks i watch this:
Personally i hate diamonds as they're almost unpredictable with cumbersome breakout. So let's PRAY it's a (very sparse) diamond bottom and not a half staff ...
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Another rjection on RSI resistance ....
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Looks like a diamond formation indeed:
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Meanwhile, on a shorter TF ...
Testing minor resistance after testing support twice (6 tests already there). Hopefully will break through.
Let's see.
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Finally, RSI/D nearing edge of pattern ...
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MACD hinting a crossover, while MA50/W will get an uptick on weekly close.
Watch it.
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CMF nearing April pre-slump high.
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Go, bulls.
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I'm sharing this private analysis i drafted and shared with few friends 2 days ago, on the 33.000$ dip.
Tonight we got the RSI/D breakout i was waiting, which is hinting the hyphotesist above has some chance to happen. Will comment more.
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Here is the further test of MM50/W:
Possibly the crucial one.
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So far price action is adhering to the idea posted above after a fakeout. here is current picture:
Bulls need MA50/W to hold once again. Even more important they need VOLUME.
Weekly close will give further insight.
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Putting it simply: bulls need a higher low on volume, confirmed on weekly close. Let's see.
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Support tested and rejected again:
Let's move, this is getting old.
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Still there.
Plenty of wedges.
Time is tight, bulls need to bounce and recover above MA50/W on weekly close tomorrow. Close mattters, spikes don't.
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A third low is needed. Possibily a higher low.
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Let me further put this into perspective. There are historical reasons we DON'T want to see a weekly and monthly close below the 31.700$ mark.
I wrote already about MA50/W, but we ahould also consider the qhole super-cycle FIB 1.618 factor:
FIB 1.618 of previous ATH should act as support or the risk of a correction down to previous ATH would become pretty consistent.
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At suppport and on edge of wedge.
Do or die now, faling here would likely imply a falling knife.
Salve Fabrizio so che non ti piace fare previsioni ma ti faccio lo stesso la domanda in caso avessi voglia di rispondermi. In caso di chiusura sotto i 30k e conseguente panic selling, dove potremmo trovare un eventuale supporto? Grazie
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@fabionebiondo, il prezzo resta al di sopra del supporto, quest'ultimo spezzato tra i livelli 31.400$ (BB/D e MM/50W) e 30.000$ (trendline), per cui mi pare prematuro fare questo genere di previsioni. Ad ogni modo in caso di forte e protratto impulso ribassista sotti i recenti minimi guarderei alla verde (MM100/W) ed alla arancione (MM200/W). Sempre in riferimento a close weekly, gli spike preferisco ignorarli.
Però, ripeto, c'è un supporto di mezzo e la fase corrente è di congestione.
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@fabionebiondo, Aggiungo che in passato il prezzo scendendo da ATH non ha mai direttamente infranto la MM50/W (blu) senza prima effettuare un dead cat bounce nei pressi o sopra la MM20/W (rossa):
Sono curioso di vedere se questo pattern troverà conferma anche questa volta.
In tal caso attenzione all'intorno della MM20/W, il test dirà molto.
Stiamo a vedere.
fabionebiondo
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Eccezionale Fabrizio, grazie mille. La mia domanda era proprio riferita al fatto che mi pareva non ci fosse granché come supporto tra i 30k ed i 20k. Ed eventualmente, individuare delle aree in cui fare knife catching in caso di impulso verso il basso. Grazie mille per la risposta assolutamente esaustiva. Buona giornata
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Puntuale come un orologio svizzero!!!
Come sempre grazie per tue ottime analisi.
Ma la tasca sui nastri di hashish? :)))
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@pietreforate, Grazie, stiamo a vedere. Sempre prudenza