I am not too sure about this idea but it seems to be following my TA.
Bids: 3550, 3600, 3625
SL: 3400
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TP1:3950 TP2: 4200
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I am not too sure about this idea ... we may still be in a correction - so trade at your own risk with tight stop losses.
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Ok time for some theory. The reason why I think we get a pump now is: For Pump: 1. See the blue line on the daily, Stock RSI is up, and MACD is about to turn up (Its quite low). 2. We now have a lot of shorts stacked up -- shorts are rocket fuel. The market sentiment is bear, this makes it an ideal market for a pump. 3. China will need to get those bitcoins out of china ASAP.
Why I think it may dump: 1. 4hourly MACD divergence (Blue vs Red) looks bad. 2. 4 hourly Stock RSI is going down. 3. Fundamentals have changed with Chinese miners and xchanges about to be banned.
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK. This chart is not my most confident chart, just shows my own personal positions.
Trade closed manually
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Broke down.
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Will watch now for the bulls to defend 3450. Should be very interesting.
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Ok I am still long .. added some more to my position. Nice Risk / Reward here. At most it breaks down and my stop loss kicks in.
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Like expected....
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The Wave 2 bottom held. This is a good sign. Lets see what happens in coming days.
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moon? :)
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Follow me on twitter. The link is in my profile here on trading view. I post all charts to twitter also and you can get live notifications.
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So far so good. We are following what I charted. We bail out as soon as our wave theory is debunked. Until then we ride.
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If we break this channel here ... we need to close longs.
Trade closed: target reached
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Broke Channel. Closing Long. Nice profits tho. Even tho it may go up -- if it breaks channel - we bail.
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I am not actively trading bitcoin (only alts) -- but looks like its still following this path.
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Just updating this idea ... again I am not trading btc at the moment. but looks like we go more down. The TL was broken. Bulls are still trying ... but i think we are done for the pump for now.
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Bulls are strong... we just completed wave 4. Wave 5 should take us up to 4500ish range. A little less than my initial thought ... but there you go! :D
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We are still technically in wave 4 and it hasn't been invalidated -- but boy BTC is trying hard to invalidate it. If you are still long, once 3930 breaks - you should consider closing out your positions.
As mentioned earlier, I am out of this trade just keeping an eye.
Wave 5 invalidated. You should really close your longs here. It may pump, but TA is not on your side.
fineregex
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for today it looks like an M . what do you do then?
fineregex
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@fineregex, "China will need to get those bitcoins out of china ASAP." is it positive?
More bitcoins at international markets can only grow sellside?
electo
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@fineregex, There arent enough bitcoins to go around. And no china doesnt need to get the bitcoins out of china, by definition its on the blockchain and its already out of china. They just need to be able to buy it before the ban.
fineregex
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@electo, what was your logic for the third reason to pump then?
if they hurry buying locally, then prices would be hire there. They cant buy internationally.
@fineregex, ?? There is a huge stack of bitcoin sitting in exchanges that needs to be sold out or in china .... or moved out to xchanges like finnex.
fineregex
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@electo, Thanks, yes, so the third reason to pump above is actually one to dump.
electo
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@fineregex, no no .... Those bitcoins will not be dumped, but moved. At least that is my opinion, but who knows. I think China will now buy as much bitcoin as they can and try to move that money out and either hold bitcoin or move it to an xchange out of china. Either way they will need to buy whatever they want before 30th.
fineregex
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@electo, thanks, the deadline is sure relevant and there will be high volatility in china on the last days. Is there an official/confirmed source for this now? But you predict the chinese prices now are fake or fear and the mood will turn 180° on the last days of september so they will be more expensive instead of 10-20% lower, despite usually expectations are priced in a few days in advance? hina and India both restrict wiretransfers leaving the country. So local people can only buy bitcoin from local exchanges and it bitcoin was more expensive in both countries since about a year constantly. However now there is fear in china that it will be harder/restricted to use bitcoin.