Hello Followers and other TradingView users! Several hours ago we managed to push through the super-strong resistance level! This move was supported from last week candle close which was a nice "Hammer" candlestick pattern and indicates that the bull move may come! Now, when we have a breakout from the consolidation area we would like to search some long (buy) opportunities, yes, still it is a counter-trend and we have to watch carefully the price action from following levels!
I marked up two levels where we could see a continuation bounce upwards (technically good entries):
The first level to watch is around $6620 and the criteria: 1. Pullback touches first wicks from 10.08, 15.08 and 18.08 2. Fibonacci pulled from 21.08-22.08 38% retracement level 3. Fibonacci pulled from the last strong candle low to the high - 62% retracement level 4. Supported by 2h chart 200EMA Second and the main area criteria $6480-$6533: 1. The strong resistance becomes support 2. The bigger Fibonacci retracement level 38% (pulled from 14.08-22.08), matches exactly with round number $6500 3. The smaller Fibonacci retracement level 62% (pulled from 21.08-22.08), matches with Oct. high $6481 4. Breakout trade - buy/sell when the price retest the breakout area - so we have retest area exactly on this box 5. 1h chart shows that this area is supported with different EMA's and 4h chart, we have around this area 50 EMA and 100 EMA 6. Last week candle close was bullish 7. Yesterday candle close was "Railroad Tracks" candlestick pattern and bounce from the trendline since 15.09.2017
So, we need to watch closely those two levels if we want to enter the trade and closely means: we need definitely a nice price action. Price action means: we need a candlestick pattern or a chart pattern or nice volume from the mentioned areas!
Hopefully, this helps You out a little bit to confirm Your own analysis! DEFINITELY make Your own research and if You don't understand some of my points or I miss calculate something then please leave a comment! To get quick updates - click the FOLLOW button and please, don't forget to LIKE! Thank You for your support!
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Like we have planned the first small pump happened from the $6620 but there is low volume and we need some candlestick pattern to confirm that! 1h chart - we have invalid "Hammer" 2h chart - close to "Hammer" because the body is a bit big 3h chart - we have a nice "Hammer" but at the moment we fight with the 200EMA (works as a resistance) and if it breaks above then it would be also sloppy "Morning Star" So, at the moment I would wait and if we drop then it would be another opportunity on the lower levels and if we get some confirmation here then I will say that! Be patient!
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Please don't look at this "Trade bar", I measured the candle lengths!!
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No confirmation and no volume at the moment! 3h still fights with the 200ema and looks like EMA win this battle! So, yet, no trade in this price level! Please, hit the LIKE button if you feel this topic deserves it! I keep You posted!
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Right now we could see that there are correct LH (lower high) and LL (lower low) formations on the 15 min. chart, if we want to take a trade here then we need definitely an HH, that breaks the current short-term market structure and if we get higher high then we can search some other confirmations from the higher timeframes! Until then, nothing tradeable!
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Just a little bit deep but let’s watch price action on this level now!
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Let’s start to collect some data: In the 15 min chart we have a tweezer bottom. The last 1h candle has a low volume at the moment this hour looks important because here are more volume!
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At the moment the April low holds us but definitely nothing remarkable and tradable!!
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Technically we are so screwed if the daily candle closes like the current price, just a massive candle from today! But today is not over, if we want to see something good from the next days then we have to push the price above $6500 but this is just SO unlikely!! Now we have to wait what the fundamental can do with BTC price (or we see it at the moment) So luckily we don't enter to any trade and if someone made Sell orders then cheers!! :) Hopefully, You like my thought process today, patient is the key!
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ALERT...actually, we might see something good from this price level, Bart moves are here again! Yesterday, we touched pretty deep prices but we got from there a nice price action criteria: ₋Fibo pullback exactly 62% -Bounce from the mentioned support level (blue line) -Bounce from/close above the trendlines -And in the 15 min chart, we could see an inverted H&S pattern
Now is pretty clear also that if we get a candle close below the $6340 and don't get a quick bounce upwards then it would confirm bearishness! To be bullish the price must stay above the trendlines! But we have to be very-very cautious because the yesterday's candle was massive and looks like an easy sell if we close below the trendlines! I keep You posted!
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So far my short-term bullish bias (watching closely BUY opportunities) is alive when we don't have a candle close in this red area/under the trendlines and under the $6340!
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At the moment we try to make a breakout from the "ascending triangle" and also in the 1h chart, we have a nice "engulfing" candlestick pattern to support this move! Still, the volume is not so big but the columns show as some very small gains! 1h Engulfing and 1h close were the highest today!
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Last 4h candle gave to us an engulfin candlestick! Pattern is bull-ISH but still, we got a close below the 50ema! We got something but nothing tradable! Still in this bad price area and the fundamental 'area' so, be careful!!
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Still no clear direction! Sorry, I'm on my phone but there You can see some boxes what should confirm some directions! Before those boxes we just guessing, like You see both levels holding pretty nicely and soon we could see a massive candle again but which direction - boxes confirm that!! (need at least 1h candle close in this area or above)
> To be bullish the price must stay above the trendlines!
What "bullishness" are you talking about, man ? on 3 minutes level??? it's like Bitcoin is being "bullish" from 10a.m. to 11:30a.m. then again "bearish" for the rest of the day... i see ;-)
The reality is, on 4h level this market has been clearly bearish since Dec 16, 2017, there aro no signs of bullishness anywhere. The simple truth is this market has been going down and the trend is still going down. In my view it is extremely risky to enter or to recommend entering long positions now. From a bigger perspective there is no chance the market will turn around and start rising again today, tomorrow or in the following weeks. If at all, it is going to take MONTHS!!! In my opinion, you are too close, step back and you maybe will be able to see, that there is almost NO CHANCE that te blue trend line will start rising anytime soon. Not just yet, it is way too early for trend change - Big market movements need time to develop! We are talking MONTHs !!! It is completely pointless to try to discover signs of bulishness on 5 min level while the overall picture is clearly bearish (on all really relevant levels). Just my opinion, YMMV ;-)
VaidoVeek
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@ReallyMe, if You are new, then here You can find only SHORT-TERM (minutes/hours) trading ideas, nothing more!
ReallyMe
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@VaidoVeek, ahh.. I am confused - How do you define a "LONG" trade then? (in your title)
VaidoVeek
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@ReallyMe, LONG=BUY, SHORT=SELL
So, if I want to sell then those positions must have all short, short like seconds and minutes, I can't hold sell position for a long time?! :)
big_foot
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Shorts are high, RSI is kind of neutral, MACD is picking up (on daily chart), Fibo from 5880 to 6900 give as exact bounce area... after rejection we didnt fall like a stone... I guess this is nice setup for green dildo.
EduardZimmermann
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@VaidoVeek "And in the 15 min chart, we could see an inverted H&S pattern." A market maker with a big stack can paint every pattern into the chart he likes to and (my guess) to create some "fog of war" and distract from the real actions behind the curtain. It doesn't matter whether it's a FOMO-Spike or a FOMO-Pattern. Shorts are rising again and present themselves on a silver tray as the next potential victims to liquidate. The latest news on rejections of ETFs is no fuel for a price to rise.
VaidoVeek
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@EduardZimmermann, yes, but we don't trade this pattern at the moment! We need to confirm, and a confirmation becomes from candle close above the $6533 and then we might look, ok very nice there was also an H&S pattern, it supports that move and etc. confirmation after confirmation! Like I have said before, this area is just so damn thought for TA makers because at the moment we could see manipulation moves after manipulation moves! yadayada...all is manipulated and etc. yes, but not SO strongly as this level! So, we have to be very very careful here if somebody want's to make some profit trades!
Thank You!
Have a nice day!
EduardZimmermann
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@VaidoVeek, I agree and appreciate your warning in capital letters. (: