Note: NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE TO BUY/LONG OR SELL/SHORT _____
Analysis _
Fundamental Analysis
The Bitcoin Miners have substantially relocated their Mining Farms from China to Different parts of the world. The Global Hash Power is now at 118 EH/s. I anticipate it will increase further in the weeks and months to come regardless of the price of the Bitcoin. So, the Mining Difficulty will also increase the diminishes mining rewards in BTC value. In August 23, 2021, it makes a high of 174.40 EH/s the Global Hash Power. I think 100% of BTC miners will be back this month of September or in October 2021.
Some institutions were still buying Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. I think that the reason the price of Bitcoin is not falling further. Some institution is also exploring BTC Mining as part of the portfolio for the years to come that will make the Global Hash Power to increase further. So, there is positive inflow for BTCUSD.
The US Government crafting a Tax Law to tax the people and institutions involve in Cryptocurrency. I read the propose law seems like nothing to be worry about on individual perspective as long as in full compliance with the Law. I hope the institutions will make a full compliance on the Tax Law to avoid greater liability to the Government that affect the Market also. Making Cryptocurrency regulated is general good in the long run.
So, fundamental still looks good _
Technical Analysis
Elliot Wave From Daily Timeframe to 1 Hour Timeframe the indicator is bearish but the Weekly is neutral and Monthly is bullish. Sounds so confusing to me. Seems like I need more good confirmations to see direction the price will go four months from now. I just have to rely on what is present data the market gives. Usually, September is bear month based on previous historical data of Bitcoin. Last time I made a TA on September 2020, It was a total disaster as the market goes against my TA because I am bullish at that time. Then the price went from $ 12,000.00 to $ 9,825.07. Therefore, I must be careful as to direction this September on the price of Bitcoin. I decided to make two scenarios that would likely to happen this month of September 2021 and succeeding months.
Bullish Scenario (ABC Correction of Wave 4 is complete) My Original Elliot Wave Count from Previous TA with some modification. Pullback to EMA 9 in Monthly Timeframe at $ 40,942.75 then start to move up to test April 2021 ATH and then to the moon.
Bearish Scenario (ABC Correction of Wave 4 is NOT YET complete) Some Technical Analyst also sees a potential C Wave after B Wave finished. Break of all support then test 2017 All-time highs. I don’t know if MACD on Monthly Timeframe will make a bearish crossover which is bad for sure in the many months to come. I think more convincing if there is bearish news, selling volume, candle sticks and indications should be considered.
Monthly Timeframe The Monthly Timeframe still bullish despite of negative sentiment on May 2021 to June 2021. Seems like the bounce in July 2021 was successful. As you see, two green candles of July 2021 and August 2021. Price is now above all Moving Averages but I’m expecting some retest or pullback to EMA 9 at $ 40,942.75 then move up to test the resistance above. There is a bullish convergence on RSI. There is a potential bullish divergence and a potential bullish crossover on Stoch RSI – maybe the confirmation is on October 2021 as long as everything goes well. MACD should be watch as this is a lagging indicator for many months to come. So, Monthly Timeframe is bullish.
Before
After
Weekly Timeframe Remember: In case the price goes down, EMA 9 on Monthly Timeframe must hold. I don’t know which one of the Elliot Wave scenarios will prevail in the future. But I’m hoping for the Bullish Scenario.
Daily Timeframe The price of Bitcoin is below EMA 9 and 0.618 Fibonacci is a resistance but above all other Moving Averages. There is bearish divergence and bullish divergence on RSI, MACD and Stoch RSI. It’s confusing as to which direction it will go. Further up? or pullback? or more downside? Choose your poison.
Four Hour Timeframe EMA 9 and MA 50 had a bearish crossover as other EMAs is acting as resistance. Bullish Convergence on RSI, MACd and Stoch RSI. Looks like changing trend from uptrend to downtrend.
One Hour Timeframe Making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. _____
Note: NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE TO BUY/LONG OR SELL/SHORT
@ali_1673, $ 263,386.24 or 0.786 Fibonacci in the Chart is my final Wave 5 target based on Log Scale Chart. Plan B's Stock-to-Flow Ratio on Bitcoin targets $ 288,000.00 for this Halving Cycle. Seems like, it coincides a little but a difference of $ 24,613.76 in price target. I don't know how you get $ 250,000.00 in the Chart. Right now, I still follow my own Technical Analysis on Bitcoin. I'm also watching some Altcoins. But as always, I'm always analyzing BOTH Bullish and Bearish Scenario. So far, Bullish Arguments prevail over Bearish Arguments but be careful as Bitcoin is now in Wave 5 in the Monthly and Weekly Timeframe. Some think that these ETFs may affect the price of Bitcoin for a longer period (Most likely a downward price action for a year after reaching $ 263,386.24). I think I will update Bitcoin on a separate Technical Analysis. Bye!
yozr23361
⋅
@Ryzen7, great outlook, i personally think there is a strong resistance at 66k!
yozr23361
⋅
Hi sir, can i count on 250k in this cycle?
suvny21
⋅
max target 136k
Ryzen7
⋅
@santana2331,
How?
not in my charts in this TA.
Good night.
C_EWAVE13
⋅
I have exactly the same view on the chart. Yet I am now completely sure if we are in a B or 1 E-wave right now... however I see weekly and monthly chart bullish. But daily time frame neutral and H4-H1 more likely bearish. I would love to know more about your further opinions
The B wave has already came up the 0.618% of the A (If not the first leg of A-B-C) and it may go further for 0.78% of A Wave.
However I think with breaking this descending trend-line we can claim with more confidence that the 1 Wave has already started its cycle...
C_EWAVE13
⋅
WOW... by far one of the greatest if not the greatest and most precise analysis I have ever seen in TradingView platform. Your analysis is so much like mine... It would be an honor if you go and check out my latest technical analysis!