IvanLabrie

BTCUSD: No position for now is safer...

The biweekly timeframe trend expired, and price corrected 25% in a single day right after. I think there might be some profit taking and a shakeout might take place, until liquidity steps back into the market. The recent claim of a huge short position at Finex should have been followed by a wave of buying since the trader obtained the proceeds of the short sale in USD (around 220 million), but instead we get more selling. An inverted price axis shows a bearish picture, further confirming me of stepping back from Bitcoin for the time being and waiting to buy back on dips during July or August. The 2 Month timeframe bar formed a Range Expansion pattern last month, and usually these were followed by 30-50% retracements during previous bullish trends.

Since the 2 Month timeframe trend is up, I'm biased towards going long for the longer term, but in the short to intermediate term I see risk in being positioned. I'm currently hedged, and waiting to cover shorts lower to buy back spot Bitcoin positions and add margin longs once more.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Comment:
Trade active: This level could hold as support, market is oversold in an uptrend here. You could buy a long term position back now, stop is 5269. If not falling below 6481, the trend signal in the long term remains valid too.
Comment: 8H #BTCUSD hit the target at the very bottom of today's action. Time for this trend expires in the next 8H period, but price is already rebounding which is positive We will likely go back to 11718.69 within the next 2 days 17 hours or less.
Comment: 8H signal is moving nicely. We still have time to retest the down trend mode at 11718. It would be constructive to see price hold over 11610 from here onwards.
Hi Ivan, we almost hit your target in a few hours! Do you think BTC will form a new mode arround here, or do you expect a temporary retrace now? I could imagine that we even go back to the pevious level before we retrace. Any updated prediction? :-)
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Hi. I am seeking advice from many famous traders. I think that if BTC reach the last peak in 2017 before 2020 Halving, there will be possibility that the four-year cycles of BTC is likely to change to three-year. What do you think, your precious opinion is a great help to many people.

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@pkb6698, the time for acummulation was less this time around. If you learn how to analyze trends using Time@Mode you'll be able to understand these cycles better.

The current trend I expect to last for 14 more months. Targets are 40k, 245-277k. Something between those prices is the most likely scenario. This will remain being valid for as long as we don't go back below 6481, and between now and the end of the forecasted time period.

Naturally the closer you can buy to the invalidation, the bigger the reward to risk ratio. I've been long from 3900, and gotten in and out many times since then, although sadly I had too much exposure to ethereum at times which reduced my performance relative to holding #BTC significantly until now.

But, since ETH hit $335 I've been out of it and bought back #BTCUSD at 11278 average cost basis (was long from 11610 and hedged when it failed to hold support, covered the hedge at 9760).

I expect price to consolidate sideways for the most part, but it's probably not going any lower than it already did since the top at 13880.
Reply
pkb6698 IvanLabrie
@IvanLabrie, I am very grateful for the sincere advice. I totally agree with your opinion. Until this is ultimately Sideways, I think it will take a very long time, and the current cycle will disappear and lead to a huge upsurge.
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IvanLabrie Very-Important-Trader
@Very-Important-Trader, let's see how low it goes.
+3 Reply
Good luck, nice trade :)
+1 Reply
Thanks Ivan. I just sold 3/4 of my position in BTC to reduce risk before reading this LOL!
Always get some confirmation of the move to reduce risk
+1 Reply
EDIT: Always *nice* getting etc.
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