BTC bearish price action coming soon?

• The area of confluence ($7742-$7570) is holding up strong.
  
• Area of confluence: combination of multiple strategies into one strategy. It is useful to find a support or resistant range for the asset's price action.
  
• How to find: One way to find the area of confluence is finding the overlap within separately mapped Fibonacci retracements
  
• Today's candle is currently closing under the 10 MA. If it closes under the 10 MA ($7453) it will be harder for the price to move up.
  
• The OBV is sloping down which indicates a price drop.
  
• BULLISH SITUATION: If today's candle prints a green 1 that will break the count which could lead to an increase in price for the next few days.
  
• BEARISH SITUATION: If today's candle prints a red 8 the probability of bearish price action in the coming days are high.
  
  
• On the lower time scale (4hr, 2hr, 1hr) the signs are pointing to a positive price gain; the OBV is bullish and the TD is looking bullish. So, on the short term we might see an increase on price since the shorter time frame is showing strength.
  
• This is actually bearish on the long term (next few days) becuase that will print a green 8 for today (read the bearish situation above)
  
  We shall see how today closes. Today's close is crucial in indicating the price action for the next few days.
  
  I will keep this updated
  
  *As I was writing this post, the price climbed $30 in 3 mins.
  

Comment:

***CORRECTION:

BULLISH SITUATION: If today's candle prints a RED 1 that will break the count which could lead to an increase in price for the next few days.

Comment:

BEARISH SITUATION: If today's candle prints a GREEN 8 the probability of bearish price action in the coming days are high.

Comment:

If today's candle prints a red 1 the probability of 2 more days of bearish to consolidated price is high especially if tomorrow's candle closes lower than today. After the short term reversal the chances of the price to increase is drastically higher.

Comment:

Oh no today's candle just turned into a GREEN 8. If today's candle closes as a GREEN 8 the chances of the BEARISH SITUATION (see the corrected one) happening is high.

Comment:

Looking at the 4HR chart, it looks like were going to see a 4 candle reversal. The OBV and RSI is looking bullish. This means the price is will climb which will minimize the chances of today closing as a RED 1.

These next few days are going to indicate weather or not BTC will drop sub 7K.

Comment:

-Yesterday's candle closed as a GREEN 8.
-The probability of today closing as a GREEN 9 is higher than it closing as a RED 1 which will break the setup. This is why:
1. The OBV on timeframes: 1D, 4HR, 2HR, 1HR is sloping up
2. The CMF on the 4hr chart had a bullish crossover, and is in the BUY zone for the smaller time frames. The 1D timeframe is still in the sell area, however, it's sloping up. This indicates an increase in price.

-We probably wont have a perfected sell.
-The odds of the BEARISH SITUATION occurring is more probable.

Comment:

The price came back and it might close today's candle as a GREEN 9

Comment:

Yesterday closed as a GREEN 9, so now we shall see if we get a pullback, consolidation or a reversal. I think were going to get a reversal.

However, I was able to get a 3.5% gain in 5 days trading the swings. I wish my entry was lower but my exit was well timed due to the clarity provided by the area of consolidation.

This update marks the end of this analysis.

Comment:

*I only made 1 whole trade (I bought once and sold once).

Comment:

4HR chart showing a good chance for a temporary price reversal to the upside.

***The bearish situation took place beautifully this past weekend :)