BTC: Are You Scared? Perfect!

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In previous BTC idea "BTC: The Low Must Be In! Otherwise it’s a failure" I pointed out that we were sitting on a Very Critical Support - the lowest one of the BTC logarithmic curves. There were good chances to bounce off of the multi year support once again, but we didn’t and it turned out to be a pretty big failure for the market

The dump was too quick and too violent. Just realize that we went 30% below the 200-Week MA. That’s quite unprecedented and that’s what we actually need to start a new bull run. Not tomorrow obviously, it has to take some time, especially taking into consideration the damage that the Coronavirus has done (and yet to do) to the world economy.

Bitcoin closed last weekly candle below the 200-Week MA. Is it something new and unprecedented? Actually not. In 2015 we overshot the 200-Week MA to the downside by 14%

Going below the 200-Week MA is very bad for the price, but the key point is how many weeks we are going to spend under it. In 2015 we had 5 weekly closes under this MA, but that was not enough for the the 7-Week EMA to cross below the 200-Week MA. Watch what will happen this time.

Look at that volume climax! This looks like a capitulation, which is a good indication that the bottom is in. Can BTC go sub 3k? Yes, and that would be too sweet.

The halving is coming and when the Coronavirus blows over, Bitcoin will recover. BTC has been here for 10 years. It's proven time and time again that it recovers.

The harder BTC falls, the higher it will go once the bottom is found

The capitulation and the sentiment we see across the board after it is somewhat similar to what we had in 2015 at $220 and in 2018 at $3k.

Now we will see many fictional narratives about how Bitcoin is going to 0 (I'm exaggerating). 1k price predictors are back in the business, however I do not think we will go that low (I mean it can happen but unlikely).

If you believe in Bitcoin long term, even going to 1k prices should not scare you.
If you were convinced that Bitcoin has a use case and could potentially change the world at $10k, why aren't you buying it at $5k?

So, there is a decent argument to be made that the bottom is in, but what’s worrisome is that the US did everything they could to support their market, but no desired results yet. Yesterday S&P500 closed on a brand new daily low after the FED cut rates to 0 and announced QE. The stock market is leading the show and to see the optimistic scenario in BTC we need to see the stock market bounce first.

The situation is somewhat worse than in 2008, because now the world economy has literally stopped because of the Coronavirus. And seems like virus spreading and the consequences of it is far from the end. If the situation keeps escalating, we can see another drop by 50%.

Bitcoin has never been through a recession. However it was created in a recession. And now the test time has come.

The economic environment like this comes once a decade & usually it means a big win for those with good timing and balls of steel. People will be upset in the future that they didn't take advantage of these low prices.

Do not succumb to fear and stay positive!


What do you think about it? Share your thoughts in the comments!




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The information given is never financial advice. Always do your own research.