Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Today, I want to drop some advice for all of my hodlers out there. I see a lot of comments about how people are holding on to their positions, and that they expect this market to bottom relatively soon. That is a very dangerous assumption, because nobody knows when or where this market will bottom. In the mean time, you could be capitalizing on the market's decline, as opposed to watching your portfolio deteriorate over time. Personally, I don't think we are anywhere near the bottom (based on my analyses) but many people do have that opinion. So, I think it's important to shed some light on the primary formation that they should be focused on, to really understand the confines of this extremely bearish market.
The formation that I'm referring to, is the downtrend channel (in black.) BTC has been in this channel since the all time high, and it has been responsible for the absolute annihilation of the price of Bitcoin. To highlight how critical it is, for BTC to eventually find it's way out of this downtrend channel, I'll present you with a fact: If Bitcoin doesn't get above this downtrend channel, it will be worthless by June 26th. That's a very real fact, that should make you very weary of buying anywhere inside of this downtrend, with the intentions of holding for a long period of time.
With that said, the safest place to buy this market, with the intent to hold over a long period of time, is at a confirmed breakout above the downtrend channel. That would be a technical development that, at the very least, shows that BTC has deployed it's parachute, and is exiting the current death spiral. So, until we see that development, it probably isn't wise to buy with the intent of holding long term, and it probably isn't wise to sit on your losing positions, when you could be putting that money to work, or protecting your capital.
In the most recent action, BTC has formed another bear flag, just above the neckline (in red) of the head and shoulders pattern. The bear flag is being formed after a nasty rejection at the 50 EMA (in orange) which sent BTC back to the downside. If we see a breakdown from this head and shoulders pattern, a rapid selloff could emerge, ushering in a market wide panic driven selloff. Obviously, that many not happen immediately, but the odds of panic increase as this market continues to destroy people's investments. A new bearish crossover has been printed on the MACD, after it failed to stay above the zero line. Sell side volume also continues to dominate the chart. There is a bullish divergence on the MACD, but given the overwhelming abundance of bearish technical indicators, the bullish crossover is insignificant. From here, look for a breakdown of the bear flag, and a test of the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir! ;)
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
@MagicPoopCannon I know you have a lot of haters - Im not one of them, even though you hate me. I think you are doing a good job. Keep up the good work, mate :)
mhfcrypto
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Most prudent sentence: "There is a bullish divergence on the MACD , but given the overwhelming abundance of bearish technical indicators, the bullish crossover is insignificant".
You see Bulls in Denial all over TV touting this MACD Divergence as the Holy Grail. Then Bitcoin has a Dead-Cat Bounce and they jubilant because they think we're back in a Bull Market....really?
People need to stop being so emotional with their Trading: If Market looks Bearish, go short (or Fiat at least); if Market looks Bullish, go long. Don't just remain a defiant Bull (or Bear) in contempt of the facts or overall trend. That's basically what @MagicPoopCannon is saying to you.
If MagicPoopCannon was Bullish right now, it seems most of you would be singing his praises. Need I remind you that this is a 'Trading' site, not a 'Hodling' site..? Be adaptable and ready to move swiftly.
Now, let's make some money! :-)
Gomez_Addams
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@mhfcrypto, Nicely said. I like to get a feel for the pulse of all age groups. I think crypto has attracted a lot of millennials to invest in markets which is great. Also, its one of the most volatile instruments in the market place, and yet they've learned something most older generation of investors take many years to learn. To hold, or hodl (lol). This means managing the fear of the destruction of capital. This is great. However, as you have rightly pointed out, this should be kept within the context of, if you're "REALLY" sure the market will rise again, and to the levels where you break even or profit. This is very much how position traders manage inventory. However, what worries me sometimes, is that few are thinking long term strategy. Its almost, blind faith, which is a scary thought. But despite this, I have no doubt they will learn to succeed. It just means they'll do it the hard way and get a few knocks. Extremely valuable lessons. But hey, that's the joy of youth, you have time on your side .....and BIG Cahoonahs! :)
mhfcrypto
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@diofonte, Agreed mate :-)
D4rkEnergY
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@MagicPoopCannon I just gave you a LIKE! I think you need it, now I'm no 1 on the Daily, Weekly and the Monthly. I've said it many times before - I like your work, and you will always be MY no 1, no matter what TradingView says.