BTC - various bear cases - including the mother of all iH&S
Various possible scenarios on BTC and key levels to watch in the coming weeks...
I am leaning bearish into the remainder of 2022 (or at least the majority of the year into fall) - i.e. immediate bullish PA will be followed by longer-term selling imo.
With regards to the bear market timescales and bottom targets (for longer term buy & hold positions, rather than shorts) on the above chart - these are in part derived from macro Price Action and Halvening cycles (see later published idea www.tradingview.com/...TC-meme-curve-chart/).
Also BTC mining costs (25th April 22) were roughly $25k and I expect in the near future that (1) BTC price catches up (or in this case down) to mining costs as it always has done in the past and (2) I expect mining costs to decline further as BTC drops, as it did in late 2018, early 2020, and mid 2021. en.macromicro.me/cha...roduction-total-cost
I am leaning bearish into the remainder of 2022 (or at least the majority of the year into fall) - i.e. immediate bullish PA will be followed by longer-term selling imo.
- Bear flag / rising wedge pattern (in red) - the lower limit of which is being tested again today as US indices get sold off
- Descending triangle pattern (in white) - currently support is roughly at $35,000-36,000 zone - this support dates back to early 2021
- The mother of all inverse H&S (in blue) - neckline at roughly $30,000
With regards to the bear market timescales and bottom targets (for longer term buy & hold positions, rather than shorts) on the above chart - these are in part derived from macro Price Action and Halvening cycles (see later published idea www.tradingview.com/...TC-meme-curve-chart/).
Also BTC mining costs (25th April 22) were roughly $25k and I expect in the near future that (1) BTC price catches up (or in this case down) to mining costs as it always has done in the past and (2) I expect mining costs to decline further as BTC drops, as it did in late 2018, early 2020, and mid 2021. en.macromicro.me/cha...roduction-total-cost
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Update another 2 months later...
BTC bear flag (from lows on June 18th) has broken down, backtested the bottom and today continued lower
ETH is on a cliff edge, and looks to be about to break down out of it's own bear flag from the lows - ETH has showed more strength in the bounce this summer possibly due to the hype around the merge / triple-halvening
Today saw a BIG break down across all risk assets, following Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole stating the FED will 'keep at it' in a hawkish speech - some key statements are included below:
"Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below trend growth. (...) While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain."
"Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time."
I remain of the view that the bottom in the markets is when the FED (and other central banks) flip...
BTC bear flag (from lows on June 18th) has broken down, backtested the bottom and today continued lower
ETH is on a cliff edge, and looks to be about to break down out of it's own bear flag from the lows - ETH has showed more strength in the bounce this summer possibly due to the hype around the merge / triple-halvening
Today saw a BIG break down across all risk assets, following Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole stating the FED will 'keep at it' in a hawkish speech - some key statements are included below:
"Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below trend growth. (...) While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain."
"Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time."
I remain of the view that the bottom in the markets is when the FED (and other central banks) flip...
Over the weekend BTC retraced to the previous ATH of $19,666 (December 2017) as expected, as well as to the 200 week MA
ETH similar but has gone slightly deeper and the current weekly candle close (in 2 hours) will print the 11th red week in a row
The red bear flag scenario played out. BTC price has also reached parity with mining cost in recent weeks - currently just above $20,000 en.macromicro.me/cha...roduction-total-cost
Whilst a tag of the previous ATH levels might be time to start dipping your toes into long-term positions on BTC if you are dollar cost averaging - also technicals suggest the weekly charts are quite oversold and these price levels might generate a bear market rally, as well as the 200 week MA on BTC which has held in the past - I believe the bear market is not over and we will retrace deeper into this summer...
I refuse to call bottoms on any risk asset until the FED and other central banks flip. The ECB hasn't even started tightening yet and has announced its first interest rate hike is due in July 2022.