BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Since the move down from $268 to $228 last week, the $232 level has remained the lowest support level . The $243 level in not only the 38.2% retracement level of last week’s drop, but also a main support/resistance level of the past month and the point that the price has struggled to stay above for the past week.

In the past 24 hours we have seen another rebound off the $232 level after a sharp decline following a brief period of stability above the $243 level.

The move was not exactly unexpected despite having broken through multiple support levels within the space of an hour. As we can see from the narrowing price movements and the converged Moving Averages, the market was bound to move in a strong direction at some point. It’s likely that with this expectation, the lack of any strong upward direction during this period would cause bullish optimism to diminish, leading to the bears being in control and a subsequent drop to occur.

Further bearish pressure is not out of the picture currently and if the market keeps the price below the 23.6% retracement, another testing of the $232 level is likely.

If the price is pushed past the 23.6% retracement towards the $240 level, this would indicate a market correction towards bullish territory. This would open up the possibility for another rally to attempt a break past the 50% retracement .

The future direction of the price is largely based on the market’s ability to keep it above $232, since there in very little support under that level until $223. Staying above that point would mean that there is a fairly strong bullish bias present in the market that has the potential to create further upward pressure. However a sustained break down past the $232 level would indicate that the bulls have given up on trying to hold the price at that level.
Great chart and explanation. I agree with most everything you said. Except I am more skeptical about bullish hopes, and can't shake the feeling this is "fake" support at these levels. I don't yet believe that simply holding price above 232 is enough to indicate a "strong bullish bias" to me it feels like either MM is controlling a range, or attempting to minimize a down move. Both possibilities don't necessarily indicate a change in overall trend (down) merely an attempt to maximize profit during the move.(IMO-down)
In other words, I'm still more convinced of a retest of 180 than I am of 350+
This recent retrace is most likely a position building step for that move down. IMO
+1 Reply
John_BitcoinGroup TheNewXDAGuy
I can definitely see your point with the sort of ranging movements that we have seen recently, the argument could definitely be made that there has been some market control or just simply a failure to gain any upward traction. So it's reasonable to expect a retest of at least the 223-210 range and I would say that is the more likely scenario.

It's what happens until the inevitable support retests that's interesting and given the right circumstances I see the potential for another move up, even if it is a relatively weak one. Would definitely say that the price is still very much in a down trend overall and 180 is a lot more likely than 350+
And the real support after the test is holding again so far.
+1 Reply
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