Looking at our highest timeframe we can see when BTC formed its ATH followed by a higher low at $3,000. Only to be followed up with a lower high, confirming the monthly downtrend. BTC price action has since been in a descending triangle, until recently breaking out. Stochastic RSI shows momentum is in favor of the bears, even though price action looks bullish. The month of April left a bullish engulfing candle which is our second sign of a reversal, our first sign was the breakout and retest of this descending triangle. A look at our smaller timeframes will give us a better picture.
Shifting over to our pattern timeframe we can see BTC respecting a bullish channel structure. Recently we saw a hard rejection from $10,000 leaving a bearish engulfing candle, and the price is now testing the bottom of our channel. Stochastic RSI showing momentum was in favor of the bulls, however, it looks to have topped out and we could be seeing a shift in momentum. A weekly close below our channel and expect a huge sell-off from this level, possibly towards $6,000. However, if we do bounce off this level we could be at the beginning of our bull market.
Finally shifting over to our trigger timeframe we can see BTC has found support above $8,500 and the stochastic rsi is showing bearish momentum has bottomed out and shifting to the upside. If BTC is at the beginning of its bull trend it would need to hold at this level and continue to the upside, however, if rejected here expect a couple more weeks of a bearish market. A daily close above $8,900 is a good sign we will continue to the upside, a rejection here and hello $6,800. Below is another idea that showed up during this analysis: Notice how we broke channel structure and retested multiple times.
