What's up guys, so this post is related to my last idea where I said I expect a short term bounce around 50K and then a long consolidation (3 to 6 months) before bitcoin makes a new ATH. So today, I'll explain the first part of my last idea; the bounce to 50k, why ?
2 things, first I expect bitcoin to retest, as a resistance now, a really important moving average that BTC broke in it's last crash that is usually a strong support in a bull market and a strong resistance when bitcoin is under it; the 21 weekly moving average (the blue line). As you can see with the yellow arrows, when under it, bitcoin will retest it each time without exception.
Second, I expect bitcoin to go retest it's last base (big orange line) who is around the same price than the 21 week MA, near 50k. If you want a better look at this base, go look at the daily chart... Anyways, the reason is that bitcoin will almost always, even in a downtrend, bounce back to it's previous base, who has now become a resistance.
So, this is why I think in the next few weeks we should have a bounce at least near 50K. In my next idea, I'll explain why I think bitcoin will be in a long consolidation (not a bear market!) in the next few months.
Stay tuned guys,
Fred
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Still expecting a touch of the 21 weekly SMA (blue line) for bitcoin. This line is now around 45k.