jackdavidpiney

BTCUSD Daily - The last 2hrs and the first 4hrs is no trade zone

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The green 50 ema
The orange 200 ema
The red 300 ema
The black 400 ema

We are still essentially testing the 300 ema and the top trend line of this Bullish 12 day falling wedge in a downtrend. Also a bullish harmonic bat. The question remains, where is the bottom?

The blue diagonal line sitting almost flush with the 400 ema is a long term bottom trend (starting in August and the third touch being the $6000 low of the correction.) This diagonal support is the logical place to place our lower side target. The confluence with the 400 ema clearly supports that theory, also note the shaded box at the bottom of the image, that represent a price accumulation zone from which price broke out and then pushed to $20,000, a significant zone to note, adding to the confluence of the lower end target.

Moving on to Fibonacci retracement:
I have 2 retracements marked. The thicker black lines are the "all time" fibonacci measured from $1 - $20,000 show a clear bounce on the "all time" 0.618 marked in gold (A very significant level,) in confluence with the 300 ema .

The second fibonacci retracement in blue measures from the $5920 low to the current high at $11780. You can see how the bodies of the previous 3 days have pushed up just above the 0.618 of the second fib measurement, in confluence with the all time 0.618.

I cannot ignore these factors and I would not be surprised by either outcome of the next few days:

Test $7000 or Breakout from this 0.618 level.

For those of you play smaller movements, this is a tricky to play, get in and out if you must, be happy to book small profits often. Do NOT hold a losing trade, ever, if your trade doesn't go your way almost immediately, you shouldn't be in it. (Remember, the #1 killer of traders is they take profit too soon and let losses run too long, think about it, we have all done it.)
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