TradingShot

The only fractal that matters on BITCOIN now! Don't miss it!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
After my last BTC idea on a possible 30% pull back attracted extremely high interest, I decided to post yet another analysis showing why a pull back at this stage is much more likely than an extension of the uptrend.

Based on a fractal comparison with the 2015 price action during the accumulation stage after that cycle's bottom, we see that the price crossed the 200MA after a +48% rise from the bottom (the tail of that 1D candle doesn't count, it was pushed back rapidly). After it completed a +45% rise from the last Higher Low, it aggressively pulled back crossing again the 200MA (this time from above). It made a bottom nearly 18% higher from the cycle's bottom. This was the last bottom of that cycle. The market transitioned from the consolidation stage to the most recent bull market.

The similarities with the current price behavior is striking. The recent spike crossed the MA200 after a +48% rise from the cycle's bottom. If this rise is completed around +45% from the last Higher Low, then fractal behavior suggests that we'll eventually see a pull back and more specifically a cross below the 200MA. That will probably (by most historical regression analysis) be the last bottom of the current cycle and Bitcoin should transition from the consolidation stage to the new bull market.

I feel the need again to state the obvious. This is no suggestion to short as it is against my risk factors to sell a bullish trend . It is merely my recommendation of where to buy or accumulate more BTC . After all, they don't call it the "Accumulation/ Distribution Stage" for no reason!

Do you think that this fractal is the guide? Let me know your thoughts on the comments section!

Below is the last idea on a possible 30% decline that cause a much heated discussion!!

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Comments

Thanks for sharing. This is an analysis primarily driven by moving averages so I think that is the most powerful thing to focus on (instead of percentages between the two bottoms). So, instead of talking about the second bottom 18% higher I find it more meaningful to see how the second bottom interacted with the 200 WMA. If we have a similar drop below the 200 WMA this time it could result in a precise double bottom to the December low of around $3150. That price along with $3000 psychological support should prevent any drop below $3k.
+3 Reply
TradingShot CanadianCoinTrader
@CanadianCoinTrader, Correct. The moving average is the main factor at this point. But I had to use additional parameters to make a rough estimate of the low.
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Everyone always keeps looking at the 2014/15 fractal, and absolutely ignoring fractals that look more similar to our current BTC moves. To me, this feels more like 2012:



+2 Reply
TradingShot FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, Thanks for sharing Flavius. Yes I can't disagree with that.
+2 Reply
@TradingShot, You're welcome. But the 2014/15 fractal comparison is also very sound, so your scenario could absolutely materialize. Your analysis is great by the way!
+2 Reply
TradingShot FlaviusTodorius67
@FlaviusTodorius67, Yours too Flavius! Keep posting your wonderful work. Thank you!
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