Bitcoin Showing Dangerous Weakness — Years of Pressure Ahead

Mar 17

First of all, since BTC broke the 73k support zone, as I explained previously, this changes the higher-timeframe interpretation significantly.

That break confirms the structural weakness that had already been developing in the market. It strongly suggests that the entire rally from (Nov 2022 → Oct 2025) was actually a B-wave of a Flat correction that began in April 2021. In hindsight, this was always the more structurally consistent interpretation, even though I initially leaned toward a different count.

Another important characteristic supporting the Flat interpretation is the speed of the declines we are seeing now. In Flat corrections, the C-wave tends to move aggressively with strong downside momentum, and the recent drops reflect exactly that kind of behavior.

With that in mind, BTC should now be in Wave C of that Flat, and the structure currently developing appears to be terminal in nature.

A terminal is still classified as a motive wave, but unlike a classic impulse it is corrective in its internal behavior.

Looking at the internal behavior of the decline:

• The speed and timing of the most recent downward leg suggest that Wave 1 has likely not bottomed yet.
• There is also a noticeable time similarity between the internal legs, which raises the probability that Wave 1 is forming a Diametric pattern.

Under this interpretation:

• We are likely progressing through Wave F of the Diametric.
• Because there is HTF demand below, Wave F may expand slightly in time, which means the current daily sideways movement could become more complex than expected with higher upward target but not much is expected (aside from liquidating early shorts).

However, once Wave F completes:

→ Wave G should produce the thrust lower, with a projected target in the ~55k region.

From a bigger picture perspective, this Wave C terminal structure could last well over a year (More not less!), which would disrupt the typical BTC cycle expectations many market participants rely on.

BTC has already shown clear structural weakness, and that weakness is likely to continue hunting the market for quite some time. Even putting aside everything happening globally — wars, geopolitical conflicts, and macro uncertainty — the internal structure itself suggests that this C-wave still has the potential to push BTC into deeper corrective territory.

Because of this, the market may remain in a bearish environment for longer than most expect.

Eventually, once Wave 1 of C completes, we should see Wave 2, which could produce a large relief rally potentially back toward the 85k area.

But for now, it is still too early to determine the exact extent of that move.

Apr 10

Trade active

Jun 5

Trade closed: target reached

I would call it a day on this one for now

This final down leg looks like it may be the bottoming leg of wave 1, mainly because of how it is behaving in time and price action.

From here, the pattern of wave 1 is becoming clearer. It appears that wave 1 may be forming a triangle, and this current decline may be the final leg of that triangle.



The structure is a bit odd-looking because visually, the trendlines can look like they are expanding rather than contracting. So it is not the cleanest or most normal-looking triangle. However, triangle validation is more connected to the relationships between waves A, C, and E.

Based on the price relationships, the structure still supports a contracting triangle:

B / A = 17,402 / 45,735 = 38.0%, which is almost exactly 38.2%.

E / C = 23,358 / 38,009 = 61.5%, which is approaching 61.8%.

The A-C-E (down moves):
45,735 → 38,009 → 23,358+ — clearly contracting. Each down leg is smaller than the previous one.

That 61.8% relationship fits well with the idea that wave E is the ending leg of the triangle. Since E is still moving, it may still need a little more downside toward 55k region, but it appears to be getting very close to completion.