As I analyze my chart and concur chart signs with price, time, and news, I must conclude that Bitcoin has the most probable chance to break out and UP by Sunday.
Here's my case:
1) BIP 91 lock-in. We got 80.5% this morning. See xbt.eu/ 2) Two more days until activation. This puts us at Friday. Markets move to the far East around this timeframe. 3) Symmetrical pattern (also known as Coil) forming with descending volume and a bullish spinning top Doji (so far) on the daily. Generally, when breaking out of these triangles, we follow the long-term trend. 4) We want to test support again, the upward sloping RED trendline currently below us. If done, we'd experience nice bounce momentum to push us through our overhead resistance points at around $2344 (78.6% Fib retracement), $2420 (huge past support/resistance), and our Middle Bollinger and top of our channel, wherever those end up being.
However, CAUTION is to be exercised. There is a ton of resistance overhead and a chance we could still break down through our RED trendline support and back into negative territory.
REMEMBER, we are still in our bearish channel so these predictions are really a bit premature. At the same time, I don't want the higher risk traders to miss out on good buying opportunity here. Dollar cost average yourself in. I usually start at 20%. Up or down, keep adding in.
If we break UP we may go all the way up to the GREEN trendline and test.
If we do go down we WILL go all the way back down to $1845 but probably not lower, unless something disastrous occurs news-wise.
Happy trading friends and remember that buying here is not advice. It is a high risk trade. Your best bet is actually to wait until the breakout is confirmed. You'd have to get in at a higher price but it is a much lower risk trade and direction will be confirmed.
Comment
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I've been asked in several PM's when I'd buy in. Personally, safest bet is anywhere above $2420. I'd hold this all the way up to the bottom of our green channel and re-analyze once we get there.
However, an even safer bet would be to buy LTC instead. LTC will usually follow it's leader BTC. You may not profit as quickly but you have far less to worry about with all of these changes playing out.
We won't know if BIP91 locks in until Friday. 180 more blocks have to signal for it by then. The % over last 24 hrs is fluctuating near 80%, nothing is certain.
stewdamus
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@thetazeta, Thank you for this info. Do you have a source link for which I can read more?
thetazeta
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@phil.steuerwald, You bet - here's a good overview of the situation:
The link you gave above has the # of blocks needed for BIP91 lock-in but you have to scroll down; the upper circular graphic just shows % signaling in last 24 hrs.
stewdamus
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@thetazeta, Gotcha. I didn't know the graph fluctuated since this morning. It makes sense then why the market is in pause mode here.
Great Analysis, you called it and clearly presented out the reasons why. I looked at loads of BTC trading view charts, 85% where short, I was leaning towards Long and the wisdom of your thinking persuaded me to HODL (Ironically i holding XRP (ripple) not BTC, but the price is tracking BTC (ATM) so your chart served its purpose for me. Many thanks :)
stewdamus
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@xrpxrp, I am happy to know it helped. I do the best I can with the little that I know and just want to share what I know with others in hopes of helping them too.
HondaJr
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So you think $1845 should be the bottom. Can I ask you why you think so?
stewdamus
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@HondaJr, in the near future, yes. With BIP 91 activated a hard fork will at the very least be post-poned but may also be avoided altogether. Also, the charts seem to be attempting to indicate this.