Bitcoin has been consolidating for almost 1 year within a wide range that many market participants consider nothing more than a long-term Accumulation Phase. Well there is nothing better to strengthen this notion than this new analysis I present to you, based on how three tech giants (Amazon, Google, Apple) traded during a similar pattern.
First of all, in order to make the sample as diverse as possible, I've included fractals during time periods that are very different from each other. Amazon in 2009/2010 just after the subprime mortgage crisis, Google in 2014/2015 during the first major consolidation of the post crisis recover and Apple in 1998/1999 during the last years of the build up of the DotCom Bubble. This is a diverse enough sample to provide as an unbiased evaluation as possible.
So as you see, all tech giants made a bottom after the price broke below their respective 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) period and the Ichimoku Cloud. Then they started a rise, which evolved into a very aggressive rally. Even though all 4 fractals are similar, Bitcoin looks a little bit more like the Apple late 90s pattern, while Amazon and Google are more similar as the bottom below the 1W MA50s was a Lower Low. Bitcoin's (so far) and Apple's second corrective waves are Higher Lows and not Lower Lows. On the other hand though, Bitcoin and Google are the only fractals whose second waves broke below the Ichimoku Cloud, with that turning red for a short while, and the 1W MA50 turning sideways. Due to that, Google consolidated for around 4 months more around the 1W MA50 before rallying into a new All Time High.
What do you think will be the case for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
Thanks for your hard work and many interesting analyses! Personally, however, I think that given the conditions in the world, things are going to look very different. Just to name a few but the list is far from complete. 1. NATO /RUSSIA - Russia will soon cross the borders into the Ukraine. Result, heavy sanctions and rising energy prices, even more inflation etc. Russia is the second biggest exporter from Oil and the biggest Gas exporter. This while we depend on Gas and Oil. 2. Chance of an even much bigger conflict with Russia due to the heavy sanctions that are going to be imposed. So heavy that they have nothing to lose anymore. 3. Hyperinflation not seen since decades. The gas and oil prices are going up like a rocket and the purchasing power is going down like a rock! 4. Because of hyperinflation, rapidly rising interest rates. The markets hang on to each other and don't like rising interest rates as we all know. This is a recipe for sharp corrections. 5. Phase out the unlimited printing of money by central banks. These trillions must go back where they came from. That is, back out of stocks and Crypto currencies. The reason these markets have risen so much is simply because of the cheap money that has been printed and invested in stocks and crypto currencies by hedge funds and banks. 6.There is the end of the 4 year cycle since 1st of Jan 2022. 7.Several Head shoulder patterns formed already and larger ones still forming with much lower price targets! 8.The US and other indices that have had almost no decline yet. Once we see a sharp correction there which I expect than the complete crypto market will go down with it. We have seen it already several times, declines till 85% are normal in Crypto.
If one combine the world situation with TA (a must in my opinion), I see no single reason to believe we will just continue to rise as if nothing is wrong. I believe that sooner or later the markets will recover, History always repeats itself but in my opinion this is not for tomorrow or next week! This is my idea of the situation and end of this year we will see what happened. You can check the charts I posted for the results. Happy trading!
@Ether2020, agree to all of your point, but all of those concerns are at best average to other concerns at anytime in the last 120 years. If history is any indication, wars diseases political upheavals were and will always be there, and market in the long run will power ahead
Ether2020
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@louistran_016, yes that is right my friend but we see that if stockmarkets go down the crypto market will alos go down. It is absolutely normal that we get a good correction. 2 years ago Ethereum was 90 USD for example. Etheruem en other Crypto's will of course go higher in the future, no dobut about that but for this year I see a lot of trouble. Bitcoin is the digital gold but in case of real war there will be only real gold in y opinion.
Goose96
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@Ether2020, Most of the points you mentioned make BTC bullish imo. Sanctions could allow/force Russia to by pass the dollar reserve system using bitcoin as payment for their energy resources. Central banks are in a liquidity trap and trust in fiat currencies are heading towards all time lows (Canada freezing bank accounts of citizens is a major red flag). Purchasing power sinking like a rock and suppressed yield curves discourages saving, doubt the trillions will go back where they came from, money will simply move from one set of assets to another and BTC could benefit.
1. NATO /RUSSIA - Russia will soon cross the borders into the Ukraine. Result, heavy sanctions and rising energy prices, even more inflation etc. Russia is the second biggest exporter from Oil and the biggest Gas exporter. This while we depend on Gas and Oil.
2. Chance of an even much bigger conflict with Russia due to the heavy sanctions that are going to be imposed. So heavy that they have nothing to lose anymore.
3. Hyperinflation not seen since decades. The gas and oil prices are going up like a rocket and the purchasing power is going down like a rock!
4. Because of hyperinflation, rapidly rising interest rates. The markets hang on to each other and don't like rising interest rates as we all know. This is a recipe for sharp corrections.
5. Phase out the unlimited printing of money by central banks. These trillions must go back where they came from. That is, back out of stocks and Crypto currencies. The reason these markets have risen so much is simply because of the cheap money that has been printed and invested in stocks and crypto currencies by hedge funds and banks.
6.There is the end of the 4 year cycle since 1st of Jan 2022.
7.Several Head shoulder patterns formed already and larger ones still forming with much lower price targets!
8.The US and other indices that have had almost no decline yet. Once we see a sharp correction there which I expect than the complete crypto market will go down with it. We have seen it already several times, declines till 85% are normal in Crypto.
If one combine the world situation with TA (a must in my opinion), I see no single reason to believe we will just continue to rise as if nothing is wrong. I believe that sooner or later the markets will recover, History always repeats itself but in my opinion this is not for tomorrow or next week! This is my idea of the situation and end of this year we will see what happened. You can check the charts I posted for the results. Happy trading!