TerryKinder

Bitcoin to below $550?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
The Bitcoin price has continued to decline on declining, very weak volume . After the Bitcoin price failed to stay within the ascending pitchfork , and fell through the red trigger line, another downward Andrews' Pitchfork was drawn. This second pitchfork has been notable because price has failed twice to reach the upper parallel. Instead, price has fallen to the median line with the candle wick piercing it.

At this point, there are two options - price will bounce off the median-line. Normally this would be the higher probability outcome. Or, price will continue to fall through the median-line and potentially go all the way down to the lower parallel line (or below). Should the price fall through the median-line and touch the lower parallel line, then it will pass through the 38.2% Fib retracment at $552.05 and likely touch the 50% Fib retracement at $511.53.

If you click on the link to the other chart (https://www.tradingview.com/e/1GJXeGBX/) you will see that the technical indicators continue to be weak. At the time of this writing they have improved, but not to the point where it would be advisable to go long.

At this point, in order to go long, I would want to see the following:

1) Heikin Ashi candle turns to green. After the first green Heikin Ashi candle, would need a second green candle to make a higher high than the first candle;

2) Technical indicators would need to turn positive and would like multiple indicators to flash buy signals. For instance, Premier Stochastic Oscillator crosses the zero line, J line on the KDJ crosses above other lines, MACD crosses above zero line, bullish crossover on Vervoot Smoothed Oscillator, etc.

So, it will take more than simply the reversal of price, but come confirmation through the technical indicators that price is going to continue to move up.

In addition, except for a short-term trade, I would want to see price move at least a full candle above the upper parallel line of the Andrews' Pitchfork . It would probably be a good idea to draw one or more parallel lines to the upper parallel line as trigger lines to decide whether or not to buy.

For now, Bitcoin is in a decided price trend lower. Until price exits the upper parallel channel of the Andrews' Pitchfork you can't be sure the downtrend has reversed. Even if it exits out of the upper parallel channel , it still would be a good idea to exercise caution as price could exit and then either fall back into the pitchfork or simply trend lower with the upper parallel line of the pitchfork becoming a support line to a still falling price.
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