Going Long, Bar Reversal Signal

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1163 7
We have a reversal signal on the daily confirming bulls are taking the momentum.

3 Inside Up Bar Reversal
Price closes above the 10 and 21 D MA's
Tested and held support at 885
RSI above 40

We can see on the daily bears failed to capitalize on a bigger move lower when price reversed off of support near 885.

Importantly the 26th closed strongly above the prior 2 days open/close producing a 3 inside up bar candlestick reversal signal, we also find ourselves closing above the 10 and 21 D Ma's.

I have been buying dips only below 910 and have now built up half my normal position size and look to build the other half on a close above 925 for a topside target of 966.58 (Dec-Jan Monthly Bar Close/Open) which I will cover 75% of and the last 25% I'll look to cover if price rallies into the 980's and then look to short 1k.

There are currently 28+ Million in leveraged longs on Bitfinex which is high given the prior rally to 1100 was 31 Million which is why I think any rally from here will be capped near the 50% extension and if by some miracle price were to rally to the 61.8% I would look to short from there.

There is the possibility price retreats back from my target area to 920 then does a full 100% move from January 12th low shown on the chart but I feel this unlikely.

I am working on the basis of a fractal style setup seen below;

Stops are below 885.

Good Luck

Trade active
Comment: Sold half of my position on a break of support for a small gain and will hold the other half which is 1/4 my normal position size. I will look to add only above 925 or scalp lower.

Price remains in choppy consolidation potentially range bound for what could be into next month.

Stops on my last 1/4 have been move to just below break-even allowing me to take something off the table after fees if price were to break lower from here while also allowing me to gain if price breaks up.

Charts below illustrate current thinking.

Comment: Full position on a break of 925
Comment: Sold my 1/4 from 908, I am changing my strategy slightly with this pair so taking some off now.

Comment: Scaled out of 50% 1/4 left.
Comment: Price made a top about $3 short of my intended target, I decided after watching the amount of traffic interested around 960 to scale out in 3 orders at 960/961.

I'm holding the last 1/4 on this bounce to see how price action develops but we could be nearing time for a new chart.

We can see in the bottom chart there will be a large interest from many traders to exit/short in this area so I'm on wait and see mode at the moment.

Trade closed: target reached: Last 1/4 closed at 970 Chart complete
New signal on the lower time frames, just waiting for confirmation to post new chart.
Nice info, thanks! Good judgment! Can you do a LTC chart sometime?
BTCMarket bysteven
@bysteven, Liquidity is very poor with ltc, that market can move sideways for weeks then breakout then retrace then sideways some more. The only decent place to trade it is in China but it's very choppy and unpredictable.
Probably shooting up and then retracing like you say. I'd play the range.
Thanks for the detailed explanation.
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