I know I had been wrong for the last 2 months about calling short all the time. However the reason for this is not because I want market to crash. It is because that something is really wrong about this market. I have been checking the ideas on TV today and found a really nice quote from the Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, Robert Prechter written on an analysis of great analyst dRends35. I think I have also seen this quote on stevepuri s analysis back in 2018. Anyway here is the quote.
"B waves — B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of oddlotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often 'unconfirmed' by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by c-wave. If the analyst can easily say to himself, 'there is something wrong with this market', chances are it's a b-wave."
Something is really wrong about this bull market, dont get me wrong, as I said earlier I want bull to come more than anyone. But somehow, I cannot believe that this is the bull we have been waiting for. Okay I agree that there is hype, public attention and FOMO going on, but this feels a little bit fake and over manipulated. The volume is not still convincing and we did not even seen a DISBELIEF yet.
This is the most important part, we did not see any disbelief in this bear market! How come everyone turned ultimate bulls? Or maybe I am the only one in the disbelief season.
Anyway, I see that Nikkei actions back in 2007 are really similar to Bitcoin s current "bull run".
This wave is rather a huge B or a huge W which will crash everyone down WHETHER IT TURNS DOWN FROM HERE OR EVEN 13K! Be really careful. I said that I would be bull if we go above 7k s but this was not the rise type that I was expecting, I was expecting a nice ride with nice retracements, I mean a HEALTHY grow...
Good luck everyone, always use mental or physical stop loss.
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The crash is going to be worse than we all expected. July - September 2019 will be the worst time of the bitcoin history... got some crypto but mostly in fiat.
@QuantumHF, really likely as well, we will see when your C wave finishes and decide then...
thanks for the share
BitcoinBearSlayer
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"The volume is not still convincing and we did not even seen a DISBELIEF yet."
Your ENTIRE post demonstrates DISBELIEF. Listen to yourself. You can't believe this is happening. You can't justify it therefore it is not real. Trust me, it's real and will be getting more real every day. Bitcoin is no longer a secret traded behind the scenes by pot heads and techno geeks. The world is waking up to it and this is really happening. Big tech is now involved, big finance is involved, big money players are involved, etc. etc. etc. The only people NOT involved are those in DISBELIEF.
dacto
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@BitcoinBearSlayer, Yeah I know, but the thing is there should be tons of people thinking like me.... I see that less than 10 percentage has left with this bear attitude...
dacto
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@dacto, I am totally aware of that what I wrote is directly disbelief actually :)))
What I do not understand is how easy it had been for most of the people to turn bull so easily... u know what I mean?
BitcoinBearSlayer
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@dacto, I think there are a few different mindsets. Traders turn Bullish and Bearish depending on what they see going on with their charts, indicators, news, etc. Most of them, from what I've seen. Don't give a rats ass about the underlying asset they are trading so long as they think they can make dollars going long or short. Fair enough, that's trading.
Early adopters in Bitcoin, like me, have to study the asset itself and come to the mental conclusion that it is an extraordinary opportunity regardless of the current price. Buying in at a low price is a bonus, but for those who understand the potential just about any price lower than next year's price is a win. I bought my first Bitcoin off eBay for less than $200 based on nothing more than a firm belief that this technology would be the next wave of the future. I suppose I was right. I would have bought in earlier had I only discovered it earlier. Even if I had never heard about Bitcoin until today and came to the same conclusions as back then I would still be trying to figure out a way to get as many Satoshi as I could afford into my pile before everyone else tried to jump onboard. It's a totally different mindset than that of the pure trader. I suspect one day many traders will have zero bitcoin in their portfolio and be lamenting about how many they flipped during the early days but yet didn't have the foresight to keep any for themselves.
The other mindsets are of those who heard of Bitcoin but dismissed it right away because they have been taught all their lives that government paper and coins is money. Then there are those who take more selfies than read tech articles so they don't have a clue how the world is changing around them.
In the end, it is very possible that all of these mindsets will merge when the standard medium of exchange is crypto currency. The biggest difference is the early adopters will have more than they will ever need and the late adopters will have to get a job and work for it all their lives. Just like the paper money zombies do today.
That's just my take on it. Right now some times are better to get into Bitcoin than others but in a couple more years looking back no time will have been considered a bad time to those just trying to get in.
BitcoinBearSlayer
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@BitcoinBearSlayer, But from a trading perspective, here is why I am long and will remain long despite the dips and pull backs.
dacto
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@BitcoinBearSlayer, Good points my friend.
To me I am neither an early adopter nor a FOMO buyer; just in between
In the early November 2018 I did my analysis and found that the market was too overvalued and we had to go at least %40 down. That was so weird cuz everyone was talking about how we cannot break below 5k. Of course there were traders who said that 5k would break and we would crash to 3k s however they were a few people and the bulls were full of hate against them.
Even though my analysis had a bearish attitude, I decided that people were right, I should be in the disbelief state, the bear should have ended, 2014 crash was like this etc. etc. so I went long which was the biggest mistake I have ever done.
Now I will go with my chart and against the crowd. When everyone is in greed I will fear.
I respect ever word of yours and agree with them. I am not in %100 fiat so I am not in panic. To be honest I would prefer the bull and earning less, instead of the bear.
Good trades to us all.
PS: I am not in short or long yet.
@BitcoinBearSlayer, To be honest I would prefer the bull and earning less, instead of the bear. : It would be easier to swing and identify the impulsive waves, thats why I prefer the bull even though I am not in full crypto portfolio.