Bitcoin has been stuck within a tight consolidation since May. During this time, price has generated a number of buy and sell signals that have yet to follow through. In June, we had 3 buy signals and this month only 1 so far. This is the reality for a conservative long only swing trade strategy. If you have more than that, and you are not a day trader, or you find yourself very confused, it is because you are most likely consuming the wrong information.
There are only two levels to consider at the moment: the 41K resistance and the 30K support. Our philosophy is very simple: LET THE MARKET show its hand FIRST. There is a LOT of TALK and "predictions" out there calling for 15K, 80K, etc. These over exaggerated forecasts are baseless if Bitcoin refuses to provide a decisive break one way or the other.
From a purely technical standpoint, the 30K AREA is a higher low in terms of the bigger picture. As long as it stays intact, at some point the broader trend is likely to reassert itself. When will that happen? That's the wrong question to ask. The right question is "what needs to happen for this scenario to become more of a reality?" and the answer is 41K needs to be cleared. That will provide evidence of a change in the face of the recent bearish structure that has been in play since the 50K break.
Reacting to price is an ineffective behavior, especially in the middle of tight consolidations. It is the RISK that carries any actionable decision making information. From the long side, risk can be measured from 3 areas: 32K, 30K and 28.5. From the short side it is 38K. Putting on a trade in anticipation of a break is a strategy BUT you must accept that the outcome is basically 50/50 and you have to accept the AMOUNT of risk associated with each side. We don't short Bitcoin so we only have one side to focus on. What you choose MUST be a function of your risk tolerance NOT greed.
Best things to do in this environment: trade LESS, AVOID listening to REACTIVE "experts" who over dramatize a lot of nothing, and AVOID getting stuck in opinions and logic. We can't see the actual process that determines where price goes next. LEARN to WAIT for a more favorable environment as defined by price structure.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.
Let the market decide takes all the stress out of trading and leads to greater profits in the end. Thanks for all your words of wisdom. Cant understand why your following isnt in the thousands - you deserve it.
All the best
burakb
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@josephhall2254, because hopium traders like vince Prince and etc are more loved. People love hopium
The resistance area is not as clear as the support area is. Its been getting lower and volume is declining. It has already knocked on 30k's door 5 times. I think next time its going to break through and 30k will become resistance for awhile.
MikeMM
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you're always late to the party marc but atleast you join the party and get out on time :)
nevillevj
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Thanks Marc. Every so often we all need a voice of reason to point out the obvious.
powdah
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Marc, I agree. Off limits for longs until 41K is decisively cleared AND a buy signal appears - ideally a break up and then retest of that area. Just a bunch of stop and go noise until then.
9275633cccf04eb9bb519ce4c0d384
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Bitcoin is stuck in a triangle and we have to wait
All the best