Just wanted to throw this idea out there -> Back in December of 2017, BTC saw a huge run in prices as part of a retail frenzy, but also in response to the introduction of BTC futures into the financial ecosystem. They almost mark the *exact* top in prices.
I think it's possible that with the potential approval of Bitcoin ETF's (decision on Monday) we see a similar thing happen: a massive sell-the-news event on a fresh breakout to all time highs, which could trap a lot of people.
While it's a tough prediction to trade, It seems like the best course of action might be waiting to see what BTC does upon making fresh highs, and then go from there trading lower timeframes in order to define risk.
If it proves to be a false breakout, then you're protected against a larger chunk loss based on a daily candle risk spot.
This is a great observation. But if we break ATH, i just dont see it stopping at a few hundred $ over.
PropNotes
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@BarronTrump, yeah that's the question, obviously the supply / demand situation favors the bulls when we come to ATH. That said, "sell the news" is a saying for a reason. will be interesting to see how this plays out - I think a lot of people think that ETF 's would be a pure good for prices, but a lot of that is baked into this rally.
CHARTING-CHIMP
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@AEWolney, I see a lot of people also worrying about ETF causing a crash or end the the bull market as well. The thing is back in the last bullring no one was prepared, it was a shock that futures would cause a crash. So everyone is prepared for that to happen with the ETF.. Not sure if they'll do what we already think could happen.
flai54
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@CHARTING-CHIMP, I don't think everyone is expecting that. People are focused on the ATH break. I would guess that only 10-15% are leaning towards the "sell the news" event. Just looking on youtube and other social media and no one is talking about this. So not sure where you are getting the "a lot of people" coming from.
@flai54, Every YouTuber and their mother is quiting "iS tHis A BUY bUy dA wumOr sell dA News?" I've heard it DOZEEEENS of times just in the past 2/3 weeks.
DrStein
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I totally agree with you. Thank you sir.
john528walsh
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Good insight ... sell on the news has proved true so often, particularly in equities trading, but its also applicable to Bitcoin! Thank you.
codewarrior_777
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I see your point about the new futures ETF and what happened in 2017, but I don't think Bitcoin is done yet. The crypto space is incredibly bullish right now and don't think the cycle ends until Q1 or Q2 of 2022 for all crypto. Bitcoin may top out sooner, but still a ways to go IMO.
Totalfreedom1
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you seem to have no idea of Bitcoin cycles. we are still far from the bull cycle top. price will be in the 6 digits