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Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: The on-chain smart money actions are now stable at a bullish level. This is similar to the on-chain developments before prior bull runs. 2. Miner action: Both hash rate and difficulty are recovering, and miner capitulation is ending. With miner capitulation historically marking market bottoms, this is a bullish long-term sign. 3. Overall Market Sentiment: For the entire BTC holding, the overall market sentiment is neutral with low interest. BTC has seen more bull runs after periods of low volatility, and a deeper correction might be exactly what’s needed to give the market enough strength to continue to long-term bull trend. 4. Seller Group Only Market Sentiment (SOPR): This group continues to sell in profit, indicating a long-term bullish trend. 5. Margin Market Actions: With the increasing short interest on Bitmex, we might have a short squeeze coming in the very short-term, pushing us to the 9.3k – 9.6k zone.
Key Technicals: 1. Daily RSI looking bearish for the mid-term. In order for the bullish trend to remain, the daily RSI needs to find support above its MAs. 2. Side way consolidation last week moved us out of the rising triangle 3. Wave developments: the rising triangle is invalidated with last week’s actions. Thus, we may have already finished the 5 Elliot waves upwards and are now in an ABC (zigzag) correction to the downside. Wave A seems to be finished and the 0.618 Fib retracement for wave A is around 9.8k. Bearish pressure is expected once this level is hit.
Are you a bull or a bear? Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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@Praveen_Kr, Still long term bullish for me. At this point, might just need a downward move to fuel up for the bull side. Were you leaning bullish after PayPal's news too? Such a disappointment.
AJFG
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Seems we are of one mind. Going 7k by August, lifting off in September. Fantastic work !
@AJFG, Might need to be cautious regarding how low we drop. Could be only 8k if the B wave ends higher.
AJFG
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@Phi-Deltalytics, Big Facts. i have some friends praying it is so ! Dave the Wave tweeted last month we'd hit 7ish by mid-summer, and that's the invalidation point. Guess BTC not so boring after all, huh ? I know you only work on BTC TA , but...ever considered using your wits on the Link/BTC chart ?
Phi-Deltalytics
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@AJFG, Haha. I'll check it out for you. Which time frame are you looking at?
AJFG
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@Phi-Deltalytics, Daily, or 4h . Bro, you're doing me a solid, here. Link usually does it's own thing, unless it gets sidetracked by BTC. It goes up, corrects, consolidate, rinse and repeat. Looks like it's testing ATH , any day ,now, unless BTC messes up, like it did early June. Penny for your thoughts ?