Even though price is not following through on the break out, it is still managing to hold the 6300 area. If you want to look at it from the perspective, you can say it is a Wave 4, which often precedes one more attempt at the high (Wave 5).
For us, this is a waiting game. We have been managing a new swing trade long for almost a week. Being patient with a position is just as important as being patient on the side lines. As many of the top speculators and investors are often quoted, "Money is made in WAITING".
As long as the current structure stays intact, there is no reason to do anything else. The entire space depends on Bitcoin , and it is one of the only coins that still maintains a healthy long term structure.
Price structure develops as a result of the collective order flow. This is the natural trail of money and will often shed light on the short term strength or weakness of the market. And this is what shapes our decisions, NOT RANDOM LINES on a chart, or nonsensical rumors.
While we have always been long term , our perspective shifts on the short term WITH THE MARKET. When both perspectives align on the long side, that is what allows us to justify risk on a swing trade. When they don't align we do something that the upsets the most ignorant of herd members, we stay on the side lines. We think like a casino, not a slot machine gambler.
Even if price closes below the 6300 support, we will continue to look for long setups. The major number for Bitcoin is 5750 and so far, we are no where near it. We are always open to anything and acknowledge that it can happen, but until price action shows clues or evidence, we will remain long or looking for longs.
In summary, for those new to this game, there is a different environment in play from a year ago. This is an institutional environment.
They have the resources to keep price more or less in line for them to accomplish whatever agenda is at hand. Bitcoin is unregulated and probably lacks the most emotional intelligence out of the entire universe of financial instruments (just read some of the troll comments).
This is the perfect space for institutions to exercise their power both on and off the exchanges. They are like the big stack at the Poker table, bullying the small stacks by going all in with then and eventually consuming their chips.
THEY can AFFORD to BUY control. We on the other hand cannot. The MOST we can control is our BEHAVIOR. We don't have to play when conditions are the most unfavorable. We don't have to take big risks, and we can WAIT until probability favors our idea the most.
Besides our behavior the ONLY other control we have is our RISK. This means having a strategy for POSITION SIZING, and knowing where to effectively place a stop.
A big risk is not necessarily about putting a lot of money on the line. A big risk is about taking a chance when the most likely outcome is unfavorable. Like betting on the horse that is least likely to win. It offers the highest payout, but chances are you will lose.
That is the lottery ticket mentality and does NOT produce consistency in any investment effort. It's fine for entertainment, BUT if you are looking to effectively grow capital, you must think more like the casino. High probability, but the payouts are small.