The HYPE cycle that drove prices above $18k about a year ago was the peak demand cycle. Anything that follows will have to be an environmental based shift in support/demand. The hype cycle is based on nothing more than HYPE. The perfect example is Beanie Babies. At the peak of the HYPE cycle, everyone though these things were the coolest little stores of value. A little beanie baby could be worth $400 or more. Yet, the reality of it was that this was a "hyped valuation" that was never real. I believe this is the case for BTCUSD . I believe the price is currently exploring "true valuation" based on the factors of the Crypto environment - without the hype.
It is starting to look like Cryptos, BTCUSD in particular, may not find real value until is reaches the sub $500 range (possibly lower). If you are long and hoping for a spike at this point, I urge you to consider another investment.. possibly GOLD .