HFBN

"BITCOIN IS NOT A BUBBLE!" - Well, I'm not so sure about that...

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
First off all, I'd like to state that I am not at all hating cryptos or denying the potential of the blockchain. But in my personal opinion, what happens to Bitcoin             right now is nothing else than ridiculous. The more I am reading about "Financial Bubbles", the more I have to draw the conclusion that Bitcoin             may very well be exactly that.

So, before everybody starts stoning me and declaring me "an idiot who doesn't understand anything about bitcoin" (Which already happened more than once and, by the way, is one of the classic signs of a bubble. More about that later), please consider the following:

First:
Simply take a look at this classic bubble pattern and tell me honestly that the bitcoin             chart above does look nothing like that:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2012/Feb/Bubble-Phases-7.png
Under the premise that we really are in a bubble, then we defnitly would be in the public phase, most likely in greed or even delusion.

Furthermore:
Today I was doing some research on the classic signs of a bubble on fundamental basis and stumbled about this article:
http://www.businessinsider.de/4-signs-of-a-financial-bubble-2017-7?r=US&IR=T
Well, we got 4 points to check here, so let's get started.
1) It may be my personal environment but at the moment it's not possible for me to go for a drink with friends or coworkers without Bitcoin             beeing the subject of the whole table sooner or later. Even though nobody is involved yet or has any idea what the word "Blockchain" even means. Nevertheless most of them think about throwing a few thousand bucks in there.
2) Although I don't know anyone who really quit his job yet, I sure see a lot of people writing about quitting or "getting out the system". (Many are going full conspiracist out there. Another thing I don't get.)
3) Sounds familiar? This is what I already mentioned above. As I've been reading discussions on Facebook             , Reddit or other "social" networks, I noticed two phenomenons:
a) I've someone critiques Bitcoin             , about 90% of the people just laugh at him/her or make fun of his/her (often eligable) doubts. People seem to forget that Bitcoin             is still a high risk investment and not their ticket to a beach house on Hawaai.
b) Good news (like the Amazon rumors lately) are accepted without further questions, while any bad news or critic is "fake" or "propaganda" against Bitcoin             started by the evil and stupid bankers from Wall Street who just don't have any clue and are simply afraid of BTC             .
4) Oh hell, yes. At this point, I'm not going to do anything more than to quote John McAffee: "Bitcoin will reach 500,000$ in 3 years." To reach that price, Bitcoin             would need the same market cap as the US$. Doesn't sound that likely to me.

Another interesting article:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/10/5-steps-of-a-bubble.asp

So, this is just my opinion on Bitcoin             at the moment. Feel free to let me know your thoughts about this topic. Maybe I'm wrong and everything is just my very personal environment creating this impression. By the way, I sure as hell won't short Bitcoin             , as I have no idea at which time the bubble will burst if there is one. To some part I'm actually hoping that I am wrong because if there is a bubble, it inevitebly will burst and crush the whole life of many people who are fully invested at this point.

P.S.: Some weeks ago, one of the genius traders around here, DianKemala, posted a similar article and it may be more relevant now. I added the idea as it may be even more accurate at this point.
Comment: As someone pointed this out in the comments, I may need to clarify one thing:
If I'm talking of a bubble, I think of it as a long overdue and hard correction that gets amplified by a highly emotional market and lots of "dumb money" circulating.

After all the things I wrote above are just my thoughts on a lazy saturday afternoon and I wanted to discuss them with other people.
I think you are correct. I have shorted Bitcoin as I thought it was going to happen this weekend. I'm still sitting on my short as it can't be far away. I thought the market would increase as the fork closes in, but that doesn't appear to be the case. I'm getting a very funny feeling. Could just be me, but it feels like the bear is awakening.
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HFBN haydenkirk
@haydenkirk, I don't dare to short this market. It may remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. I wish you the best of luck.
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I agree and I don't want to miss out on this investment but I am still in fear of a major correction, but like they say Supply and Demand, as long as the coin gains popularity It is possible their may only be a slight correction.
I would almost welcome a big correction but want to be ready and not staking too much coin when that happens.
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Crypto is pure supply and demand. It is not a bubble.
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Ayohan MertB
@MertB, Supply and demand of what, like metals, water, food, cloth? What is the utility of Bitcoin? Atm it is all about the future potential, speculated or not. Ask yourself, if the current price justifies its use as 1)MEANS OF EXCHANGE,2) STORE OF VALUE. Non of those two justify the current price. Bitcoin is classic case of a bubble according to every historical record, and available human history.
+1 Reply
@Ayohan, Emerging markets experience bubble like characteristics. It is supply and demand because there are a finite amount of Bitcoins... Can't say the same about the dollar. Over time there are less and less available for purchase due to hedging. Besides it is normal for Bitcoin to take a 30-35% dip after reaching a new all time high, before resuming uptrend.
+1 Reply
Ayohan MertB
@MertB, That is not a good response, and that is essentially the only explanation people have. The USD as a fiat currency has the backing of the worlds financial institutions that run trillions$ exchanges every second. These are really transactions, people buying food, things, cars etc, and people use it for their savings....Yes USD is fiat, and for now it is working perfectly because of financial engineering, I don't expect you to agree to that, neither do I but it is the fact. Countries and corporations are finance there debt through the USD. Your argument should be based on the establishment of the network itself over the past 5 years. That is the value of bitcoin, otherwise JP morgan will create a coin and their own network and adopt it as US currency through the government and then BTC will go to ZERO. The only thing positive about BTC right now is the trust and quality of the network. IF for whatever reason the blockchain is interrupted or some fork goes wrong, BTC will vanish and Etherum or other coin will replace it. There is nothing unique about BTC like everything else.
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@Ayohan, Bitcoin is not going to die. It sucks that supply and demand is not a sufficient answer for you to accept. Bitcoin is financial freedom.
+1 Reply
Ayohan MertB
@MertB, There is "supply and demand" for things that have utility, like Oil. BTC has no justifiable Utility, people are buying it for speculation. The people who are buying BTC for the most part are speculators and day traders. These are not people who will use it for transaction when they get a chance, so no utility, there is no supply and demand logic here. There will be "supply and demand" when you see people using BTC to buy stuff with it, meaning use it for something. I agree it is financial freedom, still a lot of barrier to cross before that though.
+1 Reply
@Ayohan, Wrong. If 16 million people buy 1 bitcoin the total circulating bitcoins would be very little leading it to become very valuable. Have a little faith Bitcoin didn't go from 10billion to 120+billion in 1 year for no reason.
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