Linear target? Makes never sense on this scale, or ever. Cost function is inherently logarithmic.
unbeldi
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Well, you cannot answer that from *your* chart. H&S patterns are not quantitative predictors beyond a certain range, if ever. Theiy are just crutches for lack of better tools. Plan B’s methods are quantitative, but controversial. Elliott waves also provide precise price targets, and it is easy to come up with high numbers., but minimal parametrization comes out to the 100-200 k range, which seems very reasonable. This being a fifth wave in cycle degree, it could go very high for years. The third wave lasted about ten.
BallaJi
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Bitcoin price relative to M1, M2 supply, CB liquidity is quantitative no? Yes chart patterns are just geometric projections , but they help me to make money . So that's why I use them.
unbeldi
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@BallaJi, That’s ok. Yes, your base data is quantitative, but how do you project future spot price. Is there a direct functional relationship between money supply and bitcoin valuation? Is bitcoin a form of money already? Or more speculative in fair value discovery? I am not sure anyone knows yet what the fair price of bitcoin should be. I don’t think your graph contradicts Plan B, but provides a perspective.
BallaJi
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@unbeldi, future spot price as always is demand driven, not supply driven. That relationship is the whole narrative behind --- " Fix the money, Fix the world". Banker money = BAD open code "money" = Good
yea of course no one know's anything :) / the entire "industry" is based on a meme
YOU have to be comfortable with this base reality. Otherwise you are going to lose your mind
GOD bless you and hope your speculations are fruitful.
unbeldi
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@BallaJi, ah… but the situation with bitcoin now is that it is both demand AND supply driven, as the supply has been dwindling, and the halving makes this even more pronounced from April forward. Anyhow, keep up the good work….
BallaJi
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@unbeldi, my demand for BTC is less at 200k than 20k
even at 50k a coin ... okay i could rotate altcoin profits into it .. but I would rather rotate altcoin profits into #ETH