The daily trend had a bullish signal which I sadly overlooked and missed the move here, I still sit in cash, luckily I did cover my shorts near the very bottom. There is an interesting scenario setting up, everyone is once again complacent and bullish to the extreme, people are trading JPGs for millions, no one gives a damn about regulatory risks and everyone is back to believing in the Super Cycle nonsense. The daily chart suggests we could short under a daily low, specially after August 10th, when the current uptrend signal expires. Risk a move into new highs after that happens, and ride the next leg down with some luck.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Trade active
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Trade closed: stop reached
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This will top very soon, just not right now.
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RgExp down day in BTCUSD s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/z/ZehYrqcl.png reacted to a big OTC level from the Feb distribution pattern area someone bot big in that area, and seems to be getting out at break even here (perhaps they rebalanced and added on the way down, these were institutional buyers) s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/z/ZehYrqcl.png Check out how amazingly well those levels defined the trading range here... (thick pinkish red lines, labeled 'OTC') A few alts are flashing reversal signals, might have peaked here.
Not sure about this idea any more Ivan, did you see the hash ribbon flash? Cheers
IvanLabrie
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@vslsevtom, hash ribbons, yeah, I don't think there's any merit to that. Just some spurious correlation to a market move back then. Also the author changes the periods to fit the action better, typical curve fitting. I'm out of the short, lost 0.36% between this and an ETHUSD short position, but I'm still pretty sure sentiment is totally fucked up and technicals deteriorated before, it can't just go into new highs so easily and so fast without capitulation. No one was even slightly worried since the top, and people on the sidelines bought at 42k on the way down.
vslsevtom
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@IvanLabrie, I see what you mean. It's funny how everyone's bullish now and they were ultra bearish 2 weeks ago. Who knows at this point. I also thought that we were going to dump hard after such a bubble. I guess twitter has a strong effect in price too, so many moonboys at the moment, "metrics" and the like. It does feel a bit off though...
I'd not buy here either way, that's for sure. The R/R cannot be that good at these levels