Firstly, I do NOT think this is a likely scenario. But IF wave C is to come, THIS is the place for it. Break above 59.8k then 60k would invalidate this.
52,838 is Drop-Dead level, break below very dangerous.
50.8k a good first target for such a wave C. 49.3k more likely if bear momentum builds. 48.1k perhaps worst case if "FUD" creeps in.
This is a follow uo to ny previous Big Picture posts:
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Comment
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GULP !!
Make-or-Break here
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Zoom IN (1 min) trying to hold, but not looking good.
Pretty cool, check this other Idea of mine below. It is what I call a "Pulse" fib, sets the "increment" of moves. Hit play a couple times and see how it is still "setting the pulse".
Followup to Last snapshot above, a few minutes later: Nice bounce on support where expected. Of course it could fall thru, but adds confidence in the roadmap we are developing.
"Pulse" as in the minimum increment of movement for wave: Each of those "Pings" (exact ricochet) confirms the continued validity.
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Zoom OUT and include existing roadmap: shows why the wave stopped around 58.5. And first support zone still around 57.8. Also shows a strong double fib support at 57.18x, with local 2.618 (blue) and higher tf green 5.854 fibs.
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Still looking strong, but that can change in a heartbeat, as you know. Also, we are about hit EU/UK market open, so that MAY have been the top for a few hours....
Nothing definitive since last update, other than a "Pump and Dump" episode.
Still holding close to that resistance At time of this post, we are going into the weekend with all other markets closed already. So "chop" might be the story of this weekend, OR we get a sneak attack.
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This snap shows what happened after the last update above Since then we had some whipsaw and spike well above the 58.5 resistance. But that spike now looks like it might have been a bull trap.
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Zoom IN (3 min) and looking at that spike and retrace: There was clearly a new Impulse creating the wave down. The various "Pings" (exact ricochets) confirm the Impulse placement, and that we are still working through the wave created by that Impulse.
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Zoom back OUT to 5min, with the new Red fib series added to existing ones
Next we look for confluences giving 4 possible Targets if this wave continues downward.
Of course, it is POSSIBLE that the bounce from 1st Green arrow ended the wave. So now we wait for further clues, but as of right now I lean towards more down....
Since last update at the noted time below: We went up to test resistance again, and have since been dropping. Of note, during the drop, it "paused" at our first two supports, then straight thru the last two.
It blasted thru all of our levels on the smaller tf above (blue fib, red fib, green supports. So we might as well get rid of this fibs and levels and zoom out to look at the bigger picture.
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Zoom OUT (13 min) , remove smaller tf fibs, and look the wave up from 54.1k with Green fib That one still looks to be in play , although the last leg down was not very tightly contained by this fib. So this wave from 54.1k is starting to lose its propulsive power upwards.
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Zoom OUT (1 hr), and look our Red fib down from 61.7k Still looks to be relevant, but again not as tightly contained. Of note: it is the weekend, so the liquidity is thin and every wave is exaggerated in amplitude.
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Zoom OUT to original tf (1 hr) and a possible EW path for wave C developing If so, we are in wave "3 of 5 of C", which should be fast and furious. So the downturn should accelerate from here, and test the 52.8k support for that wave 3.
IN SUMMARY: - Original scenario still very plausible. - Drop below 55.5k should then accelerate. - Retest of Major support around 52.8k very possible.
Do we get a "Double Bottom" and resume uptrend? Or do we break previous support and head lower?
First a look at the original chart as posted above, with the expected EW path for wave C down Looks to be roughly on track as plotted.
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Zoom IN (34 min) and a look at the "Red" fib of wave from ATH 61.8k Still looks to be in pretty right control. And sure looks like we are hanging in mid-air at this moment. I am showing the next 2 levels below for perspective.
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Zoom IN more (3 min) For a look at today's leg down from 57.2k We have a "Golden" fib again which is useful for seeing the "acceleration". Notice the PRECISE ricochets at the Gold fibs almost marking "wave-lets". Those turns may also play into smaller tf EW counts, which I will skip for now.
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Zoom OUT a bit (5 min) and overlay both of the above fibs We are currently at a possible support zone.
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Zoom OUT more (1h) and look at our total picture the minor support mentioned in last pic above, may hold. But looks likely to cut thru it, and test our Genesis fib at 52,838. That should bounce it again, or might hit the gold 17.942 of the local fib.
If that EW count is correct: w2 was a "deep" retrace of w1, so w4 should be a "shallow" retrace of w3. It is also possible that we "double bottom" ate 53k or so, and resume uptrend, need to watch closely here.
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SUMMARY: - Looks to be progressing pretty much as planned. - It is POSSIBLE for a "double bottom" and resume uptrend. - It is PROBABLE for a small bounce and then break lower.
Starting with the last snap above, was a guess for the 12345 structure, and the progress since Kinda sorta, at best I guess. w4 went higher than my pessimistic guess. w5 looks to be under way now.
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So this is what I should have done last time, add this Purple "retracement" fib to wave 3 w4 commonly retraces 38.2% of w3. And this one looks to have done so. Caveat: wave 4's are "supposed" to have an ABC structure but this one does not. Thus it is possible that we get another bounce before actually starting wave 5.
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Adding the new Purple fib to existing fibs, we have: 3 possible targets, fine tuned, with the middle one being weaker support. So if we break the 52,8xx level, then 51,3xx first possible stop, 50,1xx well in reach. And if that close to 50 round, likely "they" will break it to hunt stops below it.
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SUMMARY: - There is still a chance that we might get a "Double Bottom", but looking less and less likely. - The anticipated wave 4 bounce retraced to textbook level of .382, but it does not have ABC look. - The key is 52.838 Genesis Level, it may well bounce it one more time (has not been Ping'd yet).
Elon Musk tweeted a few hours, stating that Tesla will now accept BTC for purchase of cars, and that Tesla will keep the BTC and not sell it for fiat! So we got a strong bounce and that news changes the sentiment dramatically. New lows sill possible, but NOT likely at this point, at least for some time. Just goes to show that even when things look "certain" they are NOT.
Depending on how this plays out today, I may post a new Idea with new targets.
So we got the Elon pump, and the All-on Dump, here the snap from above and progress since: Firstly the EW count/wave structure is completely wrong for how I had it. So will need to ponder this structure more but looks like more down.
Break of 52.8k was a BIG deal.
Will post another update or new Idea when something clarifies.
i ve learned that nothing bearish works in a bull market
TradingYoda64
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@Alecto, Yes, but the line is pretty thin between bull and bear market. In 2017 when Bitcoin broke the 20k mark, everyone was shouting how rich they are and how we are going straight to 100k.
Feels about same as now.
Alecto
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@TradingYoda64, i know it feels this way, but the reality is that we are going up. I can't count how many times i thought we were going down. Then i realized it's the chart that has to tell us when we start the descent. We need confirmations, otherwise it continues to rise.
Anyway i want to make clear that i share your point of view. Personally i think that this growth is unsustainable and we will experience a major hit in the summer.
aukec99
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we have giant institutions involved this time ! btc back 20 k is history ! even the 200 W MA's are at 10 K!! institutions will not allow us to project the direction of btc this time - we had a w formation - nothing ; M formation - nothing ELIOT ABC - no correction - TRIANGLE FORMATIONS - NOTHING = CUP N HANDLE- nothing ---->>>
what ever you do now , what ever we say we are not correct right now all i know is one thing - if this continues giant alt season is coming my friend . and that is something interesting now !
EuroMotif
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@aukec99, Agreed, the big money should keep coming to crypto.
So as I Mentioned in Idea, I do not actually think a deep wave C is likely.
BUT, given the bond yields and stock market volatility, we could see a significant correction here....
Mirror_Riker
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We had this extremely bearish >-10k scenarios before. Guess what happened.
EuroMotif
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@Mirror_Riker, yeah, I am not expecting this to actually play out.
But the wave structure implies it, so it is possible and good to be prepared if it does.
HollyDary
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Very nice chart! Any updates on what you think may happen now?
Thank you
EuroMotif
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@HollyDary, Hi, you probably saw some of my updates above.
Bitcoin looks like it wants to start going back up.
Friday's US Stock market sentiment will be key, it was pretty ugly on Thursday.
For now I am "cautiously optimistic", and watching 57k as the key support to keep well below us.