Bitcoin - Which Move is More Painful?

BTCUSD volatility this past year has grabbed the attention of many traders and investors that have been out of the crypto market since the drop below $6,000 in 2018. It's got people asking if this thing has still got legs. I believe it does, but won't be for the faint of heart.

The assets with the greatest returns typically have a high amount of volatility. For example, we are down 48% from the local $13,800 high. The average 401k investors isn't going to care until we break $20,000. Luckily, this leaves more for those of us ahead of the curve.

Bitcoin and a few other cryptos are on the top of my long term accumulation list, so the short term volatility doesn't scare me. However, it has me interested in potentially getting some cash ready to inject into this market.

It all depends how Bitcoin behaves over the next 3-5 months.

There are two scenarios I see potentially playing out:

Scenario A:
The underlying trend line holds strong and lifts price up to test the heavy overhead resistance created by a trend line from the ATH and local high. This would cause max pain for bears, and those that didn't buy more when they had the chance at lower prices. This could trigger a FOMO pump towards $12-15,000 by next fall (give or take 2-3 months).

Scenario B:
The underlying trend line fails to support price. Price then falls below to the more modestly sloped trend line. This would bring max pain for leveraged bulls and those dabbling in small cap alt coins. This would put us between $4-6,000 by next fall. I believe this scenario would be the most healthy move for the space. It would shake out the weak hands and give a second chance for serious player to re-accumulate.

I truly don't care which scenario plays out. Bitcoin and a few other cryptos are on the top of my portfolio for accumulation. I've been buying again since $7,000 and am happy to buy more if and when price drops to $4,500.

I'm in this space for the long haul, and I think the next 6 months present a golden opportunity for those willing to take a shot on this market.

Excited to hear your thoughts and perspective.


Best Regards,

Micah

Comment:

Bitcoin respecting this trendline to a T. Will update if it breaks.

Comment:

A little shift to how I think price action will play out.

Comment:

Things still following the plan.