Please be advised that this is only an idea, so you are responsible for any losses yourself. Never put more than 2-4% of your account in a single trade.
I'll only post small updates on my new twitter page. I'll close my old page, because I'm looking forward to launch a new online trading community and school in July.
Dear followers,
As most people of you know I was very pesimistic about the crypto market for the major part of this year, while a lot of people were optimistic. We just saw another big dump and bitcoin is testing it's old support now. If this support holds, I'll be very optimistic and this might be the start of a new bull market. Why? If this support holds BTC will set a very strong double bottom. Bitcoin is still the leading coin in crypto, if we will really see a double bottom here, it will automaticcaly lead to a chain reaction of positive signals. This is what I expect coming weeks.
Let's start with bitcoin: A double bottom is a bullish signal, this will automatically lead that RSI will not set a lower low again. What we see is convergence on the macd. I just tested some scenario's and if we will see recovery from here and next week a neutral or a green week, it will lead to a cross on the macd. This will bring buyers back in the market again.
If BTC sets the double bottom, ETH and with them many other altcoin will set new higher lows for the first time of this year! It looks like Ethereum already set it's final bottom in March this year. The old resistance was a strong support like we see a lot in TA. The 50ma might be the next strong support for ethereum. Many other major coins are trading around strong support levels. Besides that it will lead to cross on the macd and RSI will turn to positive.
I know that a lot of people are pessimistic now in this circumstances, it's not weird after 6 months of losing money if you are HODL-er. That's why my advise is to never HODL, you can hodle but you only have to do it in an uptrend not in a downtrend. As soon as you see a trend reversal take your profit and short or wait on the sideline. Were others were optimistic were I was pessimistic it's now vice versa! Let's rocket again!
Don't hesistate to ask me questions but it can take a while before I answer them.
Good luck!
Trade active
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BTC failed to close below the old support. The first important step is taken. Now we have to see recovery today trigger more positive signals. This will confirm it as very strong double bottem which is bullish signal.
Be cautious, that's all I can say. Check history - things can get much worse than this for much longer, and it seems that sentiment is far from being reset from last year yet.
Trades999
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@BRRD, True we always have to be carefull. But if we set that double bottom this might be the scenario. Why? Crypto don't have real underlying value, so the major part of the market are trading on the technicals. Let's see or we will see this chain reaction.
Trades999
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If we don't close with candles above the support lines, this might not be the bottem. Personally I closed all my long positions and turned it into shorts. As soon as we close below the old support levels, it might turn into a strong resistance level.
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Greywind_19
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Thank you for your analysis. What will make you total bearish and exit short term / long term ?
Trades999
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@AmanSingh19, No problem. It depends and I can't say it right now, but as soon as BTC sets a new lower low I'll close my long positions again.
ilya_tet
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double bottom will confirm after btc will be 9990 and higher!
Trades999
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@ilya_tet, Bitcoin failed to close below the old bottom. The double bottom might be formed if we recover from here. The circumstances are good. Let's see what it will bring us. You are right that a close above will form a higher higher that's a confirmation for the beginning of an uptrend.