123 method of confirming the end of a bear market applied to BTC
This is drawn from Thomas Bulkowski's 'Trading Classic Chart Patterns' - in which he is himself drawing on Victor Sperandeo's 1991 book 'Trader Vic - Methods of a Wall Street Master.'
Personally, I am not waiting for confirmation that we are out of the bear market but it will be worth recognising what phase of the market we are in. If we get a confirmation of a trend change from bear to bull, that will at least be rather welcome change.
The 1, 2, 3 method is:
First draw a line from the highest high (A) to the lowest low (C) in a way that doesn't cut through price until after the lowest low was reached.
1. Price must close above the trend-line (done),
2. Price must stop making lower lows (done) and also re-test the low (done),
3. Price should then climb above the previous minor high (B) - this HAS happened but I would still like to see a close above the previous swing high - even though this isn't one of the rules.
This method is taken from equity markets, which differ markedly from Crypto markets. However, it is just another tool in the tool bag. In equity markets, fulfilment of the 3 conditions normally means a short-term 35% gain as the bulls take control again. Depending on how things go over the next week or so, we may have an early confirmation relatively soon. Then again we may have to wait for some time if we make a new lower low unexpectedly.
I am not a professional, a financial adviser, or your Mum. Please do your own research and I wish you the best of luck. Go the bulls!
Personally, I am not waiting for confirmation that we are out of the bear market but it will be worth recognising what phase of the market we are in. If we get a confirmation of a trend change from bear to bull, that will at least be rather welcome change.
The 1, 2, 3 method is:
First draw a line from the highest high (A) to the lowest low (C) in a way that doesn't cut through price until after the lowest low was reached.
1. Price must close above the trend-line (done),
2. Price must stop making lower lows (done) and also re-test the low (done),
3. Price should then climb above the previous minor high (B) - this HAS happened but I would still like to see a close above the previous swing high - even though this isn't one of the rules.
This method is taken from equity markets, which differ markedly from Crypto markets. However, it is just another tool in the tool bag. In equity markets, fulfilment of the 3 conditions normally means a short-term 35% gain as the bulls take control again. Depending on how things go over the next week or so, we may have an early confirmation relatively soon. Then again we may have to wait for some time if we make a new lower low unexpectedly.
I am not a professional, a financial adviser, or your Mum. Please do your own research and I wish you the best of luck. Go the bulls!
Comment:
Actually, #2 a re-test of the low isn't actually complete yet while 3 is complete.