TroyByrne

BTC Analysis - Some Advice on Trading Risk/Position Sizing

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
G'Day Cobbers,

Bitcoin is looking strong this morning and even opened outside the top of the rising wedge , we hit $9700 before
it stalled and people started to take some profits, we should see some correction but with FOMO, it wouldn't surprise me if it continued on unabated. For the first time since near the ALT we have had a decent crossover back above zero on the TSI, last time it skimmed but fell was the last trap at 11500. RSI is sitting at 68 but still has plenty of room to rise and MACD is looking positive. We have broken into the cloud in the ichimoko cloud.

We can look at 9521, 9282 and 9082 as support and 12945 is the top of the cloud, if we are to play a complete cross through the cloud as a trade.

A little note for those new to this,

The biggest problem I find is that new traders with little to no experience come on tot TV looking for trades or signals and not to learn. They don't seem to understand that important lesson, of having a trading plan. Wins and Losses are all part of success and when we trade it is within defined risk limits and position size. That way win or lose it does not matter, it is all a matter of probabilities and if you believe in your strategy and have a well-managed trading plan, even if your odds of winning are 5.1/10 trades you can profit. I always tell people who come to me looking for advice, don't blindly follow anyone on TV or Twitter , never trade on anyone else's calls with prior research and always trade within your plan and most importantly invest your time in study before trading.

Feel free to come to me for advice, that is why I post here, but don't come looking to blame anyone on TV if you trade on a post and you lose money.

Plan Example:
Equity Size: $10 000
Risk: 1% - 2% max per trade (Risk does not equal position size on each trade but how much you are can lose on each trade)
Reward Potential (Entry and exit )
Placing Entry (support)
Exiting (Resistance)
Placing Stop (this is what defines your risk)
Now once you have found you trade deciding your position size will be defined on where you can set the stop, it needs to be in a place that will not get stopped out too easily, if it is a long term trade it will need to be set wider and crypto is very volitile, you want to also set it in a place that you can say to yourself, okay I got that trade wrong and move on, otherwise you end up just setting the stop again and you will continue to lose the trade.

So your risk is $100- $200 maximum, if you want to place a $1000 position, you need to get your stop at a spot no further away than a $200 loss, if it needs to be set further away than that, you will need to lower the position until it fits your risk %.

I read in Trading in the Zone a perfect analogy, think of your position size as a bridge over the grand canyon, a small position is like a freeway bridge, nice and wide and safe, with plenty of room for error. A large position size is like a tightrope, with no room at all for error and the slightest swing could have you tumbling to your death.

I hope this helps a little,
Comment:
Comment: kumo twist coming up in a few hours, possible breakthrough to above the cloud on the hourly
Comment: Brought stop up to 50% of profit.
Comment: Moving towards the twist
Comment: Funny how you clickbait a headline and get thousands of views and likes, whilst this trade has been gone perfectly and crickets....
Comment:
Comment: Bingo
I miss your posts TroyByrne. They're all good quality, and I thank you for doing it free of charge!
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xsimon1 samiswilf
@samiswilf, agreed!
Reply
are we likely moving up from here or going down first then up? whats a good long entry?
Reply
TroyByrne xsimon1
@xsimon1, Good Entry is the green box, lots of support. If you want to short a good entry is the red box or a bit below. Use stops though in case it breaks through either support or resistance. If you are not in a trade now, I would not recommend entry but if I was to pick a direction I would say up, no guarantees though.
+1 Reply
xsimon1 TroyByrne
@TroyByrne, Thanks man...it looks pretty bullish...am long on it
Reply
TroyByrne TroglodyteHomunculus
@TroglodyteHomunculus, Thanks, reach is fairly small but Im glad that a few can at least benefit.
Reply
@TroyByrne, NXT/USDT (Poloniex) is now in the cloud on the daily.
+1 Reply
Hi, good advices my friend! :)
Sorry, what means "FOMO" ?
I want learn more with you... I'm worry about pullback how to predict it?
Reply
Esmaeel jaatrad
@jaatrad, feer of missing out
Reply
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