In today's BTC analysis I want to shed some light on the downtrend that BTC has been trading in for well over 4 months now. Specifically, I want to compare it to last cycles bear fractal, which occurred after the blow-off top in 2017. The pink fractal is a direct unedited copy of the 1-year bear market after BTC topped late in 2017.
When we compare the current market structure to the market structure of 2018, we can discover some striking similarities.
1: First liquidation even after the all-time high, followed by a minor bump which got sold off. 2: Second liquidation event with more volume. This even creates a strong support which will hold for a couple of months. 3: Double top correction after second liquidation. Bearish price action continues. 4: Bearish move after double top. Does not create a lower low below the second liquidation's wick. 5: Second bullish correction. Top is lower than the double top correction.
Assuming that the bear-market is playing out the same as in 2018, but quicker, I've added the last half of the 2018 bear market in yellow to the current market. This could signal that there's much lower volatility to come our way, before eventually capitulating towards <30k.
I'm not convinced that the current market will play out exactly the same way as 2018, but it's an interesting view nevertheless. It would certainly fit the overall bearish narrative in the stock and crypto markets.
This is more like it... One final drop still in the cards.
Savvythe1
⋅
It’s hard to say we are done going up even if there is a relief rally dead cat bounce left. On chain metrics call for up per their history. Daily, 3D and W charts are consistently looking more and more bullish especially on Alts. The only juice we need is some volume. I think it is interesting when looking at the volume of BLX and noticing that it has been waining since 2015. Making me think that BTC doesn’t have 4 year cycles, that it actually has longer cycles and if you look at BTC from from the bottom of 2015’ to 2017’ top comparatively to this run, we have more movement. I’m just curious to if we are in a running flat or an extended flat correction currently.
FieryTrading
⋅
@Savvythe1, BLX's volume is decreasing because no one trades it anymore. Wouldn't use it as some kind of predictive indicator.
Savvythe1
⋅
@FieryTrading, It is on all of the longer term charts too.
TraderHalai
⋅
I think we are entering an accumulation zone of a lifetime between the 200 week moving average and below the gaussian channel - 20k to 38k. Will be buying on the way down, but also recognise there could be a parabolic run this year based on lengthening cycle theory. So have some btc on deck already to hedge this scenario
One final drop still in the cards.