Nathan_Black

See, no reason to panic!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello traders and hodlers! So, it seems BTC found its support at the green trendline , just as we thought, and it’s doing what it seems to be a Harami (we should wait for the candle to close before jumping to any conclusions).

But would be nice if BTC closes a candle above this light blue line at $ 9.2, it would be a very good bullish sign, in my opinion. Now, let’s look at the hourly chart, as always:


It started a bullish trend (higher highs and higher lows), is trading above the 21 ema and we can draw a rising wedge pattern. Theoretically, rising wedges should do downward breakout, but this is not a rule. In fact, rising wedge’s downward breakout are one of the worst performing patterns to trade, accordingly to Bulkowski – I recommended his books in one of my yesterday’s analysis, the link to it is below!

Now, let’s see the weekly chart:


In my opinion, the bulls are just gathering strength here, and it seems we will escape from this descending channel soon. And I’m optimistic about the volume too, as Charles Dow would say: “The volume must confirm the trend”. Now, since you are still here, how about leave a comment, even if you disagree with me? Tell me what you think and remember to follow me to keep updated!

I’ll maintain what I said in my last analysis, and it’s worth to hold BTC for a while. We are on a streak of winning trades, and we can take our chances here. Again, no reason to panic!

Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume ). Like this idea if it helped.

Thank you very much.

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Comments

Good job
Reply
Nathan_Black tasnuvahamida
@tasnuvahamida, Thanks my friend, we are in this together!
Reply
@Nathan_Black was that a harami candle that formed on yesterday's close?
Reply
Nathan_Black moomoo1911
@moomoo1911, Yes, it was! But be careful, it's doing a H&S in the hourly chart, and if triggered the price can sink all the way down to $8.9k or even $ 8.8k.
If I was out, I would wait a little more, if the bulls frustrate this H&S then we may see a rally here. BTC is in a decisive point right now, and we should be patient.

That's it moomoo, good trades.
Reply
In my opinion I can see some early signs of trend reversal, here is why:

RSI:

We broken the trendline creating lower high giving signal of trend exhaustion. If we create another lower low we will cross 50 level indicating more downward pressure. We created mirror scheme to the one from February.

MFI:

We are currently at 38 level and still going down. If BTC will move to the upside now it's likely to create a big bearish divergence at important level. Notice that it was moving down while price moving to the upside during last bounce (since the volume was too low).

Ichimoku:

We are facing cloud resistance on weekly. Looks like we are getting rejected for now(but candle hasn't closed yet).

In addition weekly momentum looks like it's near exhaustion

Having it considered:


Most probable scenario for me is BTC run up to blue triangle bound making lower high and creating huge bearish divergence on MFI/RSI causing another selloff (breaking trendline) with target to 7200 (Ichimoku daily cloud).

I'm curious what you think :) I'm open for discussion
Reply
Nathan_Black krystiann99
@krystiann99, Hey krystiann! Very good analysis! And I see your point, the difference between us is that I don't use any indicator, just a 21 ema sometimes. And that's why my trading style is more reactive than predictive. But I agree with you, if I see a bearish pattern near the previous top or resistance I'll book my profits and switch to the "bear mode" in an instant! In fact I won't be happy until a close above the $ 9.2k, but until then, it's a big "if".

Keep up, man! Very good work!
I wish you well.
+2 Reply
krystiann99 Nathan_Black
@Nathan_Black, yeah, our styles are totally opposite, matching them would do fireworks! Good luck!
+1 Reply
Very good eye to have such awesome analysis. Here's my chart too to show how the next bullish momentum starts after we close above $10300 on the weekly. Cheers.
Reply
Nathan_Black triquista
@triquista, Hello triquista! I'll say the same to you, very good eye! That's a nice perspective, and I couldn't agree more!

Thank you, and I wish you the best!
Reply
triquista Nathan_Black
@Nathan_Black, Thanks, I appreciate.
+1 Reply
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