Bitcoin has had a few people panicing recently with it's price action and how it's behaving. However if we take a step back and analyse what's going in the fact of the matter is that its acting rather normal and going through most of the routine price action it usually does. Pullbacks are common place in Bitcoin and crypto currency in general and as it stands right now we are experiencing a very common correction.
If it stays in the realm of "common" or around the average of a 25-30% correction, this would end around the $55,000 area. This correction would coincide close to the 9 day EMA as well as the anchored VWAP from the ETF launch. While a deeper correction is certainly possibly, I find it more probable that price starts moving in a very choppy or sideways pattern when summer comes around as opposed to parabolic moves like we have seen. Of course, this is not to see we won't advance higher. I think in the long term we will move much higher but I believe it will take time to get there.
The biggest catalyst for Bitcoin right now is the approval of the ETF's, these have brought in an influx in cash and will most likely continue to attract investors with Bitcoin being one of the best performing asset classes at the present moment.
A few technical's that I like: I like that RSI is still overall in an uptrend and we haven't seen any divergences on the larger time frames MACD has continued to show resilience and has been in a steady uptrend. While it did print some minor weakness that has meant we are in for some consolidation, which is to be expected and quite frankly, needed.
Bottom line: This "support" zone needs to hold. If these area's hold and buyer's regain control I expect Bitcoin to go much higher in the coming months.
Cheers, TCD
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A nice move off the top of the support zone. If we keep going higher I would think buyers are in control again, otherwise I am looking for a compression type pattern over the next couple days to ratify that this has happened
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Well, this is playing out right on schedule at the moment. Lets see what happens over the weekend
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Pretty damn close with my arrows -
At this point, it's a buy-and-hold type situation to see what transpires. The next targets aren't until 100k+ if we start breaking the ATH again.
Very interesting idea. I think that the support will hold, unless manipulated, Bitcoin is hot this year, so I do not expect a 30% pullback. 15%/20% more likely. I do not agree about going sideway before the halving. There is always a rally just before the halving and after a much needed correction. So I expect Bitcoin to consolidate now, then start to pump to 70k+ into the halving, then correct again after the halving. I agree with your scenario, after the halving, there will be a blurred time with not really catalyst and Bitcoin will go sideway for a while.
ChartDudes
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@smartwater3d, Thank you for the thoughts. While it's certainly possible we only get a 15-20% pullback I need to see more of a compression pattern before I redeploy the 25% I moved to cash.
If you notice, my sideways comment was said to be summertime or a few months after the halving. We have already run up considerably into the halving and if this correction holds we could get one more run up closer to the halving and after but a month or so after that halving or closer to summer is when I think we generally move sideways, of course we have to wait to see but those are my initial thoughts.
CryptoNikkoid
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@ChartDudes, I generally agree on your approach and following. When do you think will start the parabolic step to 100k? Around July/august?
ChartDudes
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@smartwater3d, Hard to say, honestly I would love to see 100k by Mid May then sideways chop from there for the next few months while everything resets. But what I would love to see and what happens are very different, I really need to see what happens for the next 2 months before I can make a more accurate forecast.
CryptoNikkoid
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@ChartDudes, Thanks for your answer. 100k is just a mater of time. Patience.
I do not agree about going sideway before the halving. There is always a rally just before the halving and after a much needed correction. So I expect Bitcoin to consolidate now, then start to pump to 70k+ into the halving, then correct again after the halving. I agree with your scenario, after the halving, there will be a blurred time with not really catalyst and Bitcoin will go sideway for a while.