The current action seen today spurting up to 6320 and then plummeting quickly down to 6200 clued me into the action seen in the last 48 hours as an ABCDE symmetrical triangle. Elliot Waves shows E up top which leads to downwards action coming out of it. In general triangles are seen as waves 2 and 4. I had been thinking the intermediate degree of trend was just a zig zag, but the triangle leads me to believe it is wave 2 and so BTC would have 3, 4, and 5 left.
BTC's cycle midpoint on June 28 started the onset of the upward wedge bounce upwards as the cycle midpoint. BTC is now seeking out a lower low at the cycle end point of July 28th. I am seeing July as a 5 wave downward column. I am seeing the apex of BTC's current triangle wave 2 as hitting the top resistance line of the column at 6300. As you can see the trend line with the apex hits at 4800 on July 28th. You can also see a clear support at that level looking back at the fall of 2017.
I have wave 3 at 1.618 of wave 1. Wave 4 at .236 of wave 3, and Wave 5 at .786 of wave 1.
I will post an closeup image of wave 2 for the current triangle in the updates below.
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Here is the close up of the current BTC triangle which I have as wave 2.
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Wave 2 is an abc flat 3,3,5.
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You can place an effective short position at the current market value with a very tight stop loss just above the 6450 resistance line. That resistance is the bottom of the triangle of 2018. If it manages to enter back into the triangle I do not think it would be a wave 2 corrective wave.
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It’s forming a bear wick on the upper trend of the column.
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This is a point of indecision. It’s either a complex correction taking an unexpected path, or an ugly impulse. The ugly impulse is confirmed at breaching he neckline at 6835. That invalidates the corrective wave count and confirms a head and shoulders pattern, minimum price expectation would be 7800. The current spike happened I drop exactly at .618 retrace and so a lower low is still expected.
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Pull back at the .786 now. Will it make it to 6835, or is this a flame out of buyers before a mega sell off bear run?
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I think this could be the count. It would mean bearish impulse waves would commence soon. It would allow for a lower low at the end of the cycle and have it so the head and shoulders is not confirmed. It makes C .618 of A. It matches with Fibonacci on each of the subwaves down to micro degree.
The first shot up to 6380 was surely the end of a wave. There is a short minuscule degree 3 waves down and then this 5 wave impulse.
asegretto
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This column may be more accurate
ESSCRS
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so if we are finished here and we are going to move up this is how I think it will play out, so we have the wave down W, then we are putting in an expanded flat X, which the C leg will take us up to around 14.5k - 15k, if you see there is major confluence there its the 61.8% retracement from the top to the bottom and the 161.8% extension of the A to B, which is where C usually land in expanded flats. then we will finish the correction with either a triangle or zig zag down toY. obviously if it is a triangle we wont go as low as I have it marked here but you should get the point.
asegretto
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@ESSCRS, This is another interesting count, and somewhat similar to a couple I have thought of. I do not anticipate the correction to last as long as this count suggests. My primary outlook agrees with the cycles posted and seen here:
The man who posted this chart is extremely well respected as a cycle analyst. As you can see, he as BTC in a new 9 Month cycle. If he is correct then any count drawing out the correction much longer, is not correct.
ESSCRS
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@asegretto, the time line i have isnt to scale for sure its just drawn to illustrate the overall pattern, but thanks for sharing that link. Im never set with one count or another and always willing to stand corrected, i have other counts that take us much lower but I have a feeling with the up coming announcement of an ETF will take this market higher, at least for a short to mid term time frame. One could argue this has looked like an area of accumulation over the last week so it is possible we will move higher soon, I have a feeling they will try to fake out the weak hands before ripping it up, also to trap the shorts, just my experience from trading stocks, especially when news is expected
asegretto
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@ESSCRS, I agree with much of your outlook. I am expecting a short bounce up to 7800 in August and then back down low. I do not expect the current 60 day cycle high of 7777 to be broken before September 28, though this is pushing the boundaries of the cycle chart linked above. My alternate has increasing high volume in August starting a massive price increase. If we are to see a true trend reversal I’m expecting lots of selling prior to it, lowest expected price is near 3100.
ESSCRS
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there is still a chance that the bottom is in and this is a 1 and 2 moving up
asegretto
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@ESSCRS, that’s an interesting alternate count. There’s also a head and shoulders pattern that would be confirmed price wise at least if it manages to break the neckline at 6800, and if it did we can expect 7800. However I don’t see volume supporting this bullish outlook. This action I’m calling a flat needs to be wave 3 and the left shoulder would need more volume. I have a stop loss on my short position set for 6450. This is because there is long term resistance at 6440, the minute Fibonacci patterns have been treasing it but not breaking upwards to touch it. I do not expect btc to break the 6440 resistance but it it does that would be the first bullish sign. It works out much better, and it’s my primary count, with your wave 1 impulse marked as a wxy, but you need the action from June 24 to catch the full W wave. The waves are overlapping and don’t look impulsive to me but rather look corrective. This flat hitting 6380 was my primary outlook before I was thinking triangle actually.
ESSCRS
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@asegretto, youtu.be/DxI9VAgNflY watch this video it will open your mind to a whole different idea of what the count is, this correction is much more complex than people think, they think its just a double or triple zig zag which it could be eventually but it doesnt look like we have an X wave, the retracement isnt high enough where most have the X, not this is 100% but it does open the mind to some new ideas which is always good
ESSCRS
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a great resource for elliott wave analysis is trade devils on youtube and twitter check them out
The first shot up to 6380 was surely the end of a wave. There is a short minuscule degree 3 waves down and then this 5 wave impulse.