balocik

BTC - It's now or never ( or maybe later )

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
How all that happened that we got that beautiful pattern Bump-and-Run? Well this example proves that one pattern can be a made of many patterns and trading is just a process of following breakouts from one formation to another. So let see which formations made B&R.

First was Adam and Eve Double Top which was almost a book pattern with all measurements on place and correct.Than we had invert V pattern which lead us to falling wedge . When wedge broke out and became valid, at the same time started creating double top Adam and Eve. DT finished with pullback and that my friends created inverted Cup and Handle . By putting all these small patterns together we ending up with Bump and Run which should finish bear run. I say should because every pattern gives as option of going up or down. There is never guarantee that just because we see H&S price will decline 29% from confirmation point. It may go down 5%, stop on support, and bounce off 50% up making your short position squeezing.

Double Top

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Falling Wedge

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Double Top

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Falling Wedge

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Cup and Handle

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All together


Items that match Bump and Run:
*Rising trendline - A trendline connecting the price valleys rises upward usually at 30 to 45 degrees, but this varies with scaling.(our has 26%)
*Lead-in phase - The lead-in is the section at the start of the pattern and it precedes the bump phase. Price follows a rising trendline .
*Bump phase - Price rises in the bump phase following a steeper trendline (45 to 60 degrees or higher) on high volume usually after a favorable event . Price rounds over and eventually returns to the lower, 30-degree trendline setup in the lead-in phase.
*Bump height - Measured from the peak to the 30-degree trendline , it must be at least twice the lead-in height.
*Downhill run - After price returns to the 30-degree trendline , price may bump up and form additional bumps or slide along the trendline before plunging lower in a downhill run
*Volume - High at the start of the pattern, at the bump start, and at the downward breakout (where price pierces the 30-degree trendline ).
*Confirmation - The pattern confirms as a valid one when price closes below the 30-degree trendline .

Credit - Thomas N. Bulkowski
source - http://thepatternsite.com

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This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell.


Comment: Ok - 4H chart - Support is broken and B&R pattern is confirmed as valid. Now let's drop that stubborn BTC to 5000$.
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Comment: Moving in the falling wedge. One thing which is not normal - volume should be descending , and here looks more flat
Comment: Support became resistance - looks strong so expect more price decline
Comment: Falling Wedge and resistance level. If daily will close outside wedge and above resistance BTC will go up to 9500
Comment: Bearish flag 1H chart
Comment: I think we can forget 9000 unless there is some kind of magic power on the market which push price above trendline. Plus if You add fib levels which indicates price drop - it comes as drop to 1st - 6300 ans 2nd 5800
@balocik Why did you move the support trend line on this last update up to the closing values instead of the lowest wicks like in your 1st chart on the cover of this ? Is it to reflect the possible resistance before completing your original idea??
Reply
balocik joperjorge1
@joperjorge1, well spotted. I constantly expanding my trading knowledge and learned that in most cases wicks are not that important. Plis I always verify price move against few different measures. Price is a dynamic concept and That's why Yesterday I was long and today I'm out after reaching 0.618 fib. IMO price will drop. But hey - I might be wrong.
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@balocik

I agree. Right now, there is absoluly no buying pressure to support a rally. In fact, most of the recent volume seemed to come from exchanges manipulating the price in order to earn revenue through liquidating margin positions.
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This bearish flag correspond with my fractals
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What did you put as a stop loss on your short?
Reply
balocik GustavoBrucestavo
@GustavoBrucestavo, My sl is always 5% so for that transaction was 7400, However I did closed my position at 6600.
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I doubt that we go up to 9500 as the upper trend line of the downward channel lies somewhere between 8000-8500.
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Wouldn’t want to be short now
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Do you think its a good time now to open short position?
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@Nxo, I've opened mine at 7100.
+2 Reply
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