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Current price situation
5 charts to draw the picture.
==> Bearish.
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Short interest
Bitmex 28.5% shorts 71.5% longs
Bitfinex 25% shorts 75% longs
IG clients 16% shorts 84% longs
Other brokers refuse to say apparently. Must be the same.
CME: The usual, small are very bullish 25% bears 75% bulls, funds & commercial are bearish 60-70%.
Pretty extreme but almost only retail trades this market, and they are generally always bullish.
==> Bearish.
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Social network sentiment
Extremely hostile towards bears. Bulls are not laughing anymore.
They are grouping up, calling bears names, threatening them, banning them.
There are still a few "1 million soon" calls (there always are), but euphoria there is no more.
==> Bearish.
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News & fundamentals
Bad, with in particular news of corruption, criminals being arrested, dark net volumes soaring.
New interest in Bitcoin is much lower than in november 2017 - February 2018 according to google trends, with a little peak (way lower than late 2017) in June. We are at mid 2018 and early 2019 levels (low).
The average transaction is still 50c to 1 dollar. LN did not fulfill its promise of solving the network issues.
The promised Bakkt success did not happen (go figure), typical daily volumes for the contract are around 50. Bitcoin. Buy the rumor sell the news?
==> Bearish.
***************
Assessment ==>
Anxiety. Trapped bulls. Further downside likely.
Target: $6000 to full retrace of the 2019 bubble, with a possible bounce in the meantime.
Current price situation
5 charts to draw the picture.
==> Bearish.
***************
Short interest
Bitmex 28.5% shorts 71.5% longs
Bitfinex 25% shorts 75% longs
IG clients 16% shorts 84% longs
Other brokers refuse to say apparently. Must be the same.
CME: The usual, small are very bullish 25% bears 75% bulls, funds & commercial are bearish 60-70%.
Pretty extreme but almost only retail trades this market, and they are generally always bullish.
==> Bearish.
***************
Social network sentiment
Extremely hostile towards bears. Bulls are not laughing anymore.
They are grouping up, calling bears names, threatening them, banning them.
There are still a few "1 million soon" calls (there always are), but euphoria there is no more.
==> Bearish.
***************
News & fundamentals
Bad, with in particular news of corruption, criminals being arrested, dark net volumes soaring.
New interest in Bitcoin is much lower than in november 2017 - February 2018 according to google trends, with a little peak (way lower than late 2017) in June. We are at mid 2018 and early 2019 levels (low).
The average transaction is still 50c to 1 dollar. LN did not fulfill its promise of solving the network issues.
The promised Bakkt success did not happen (go figure), typical daily volumes for the contract are around 50. Bitcoin. Buy the rumor sell the news?
==> Bearish.
***************
Assessment ==>
Anxiety. Trapped bulls. Further downside likely.
Target: $6000 to full retrace of the 2019 bubble, with a possible bounce in the meantime.
Comment:
I am going to try and time the market, just for fun.
If the price hits the treasure mark X, that would be a good entry point:
Those are all the times in BTC history the price bottomed more than twice:
I think the most likely is low 6000s by mid november.
I would like to show something very interesting: