MrRenev
Short

Bitcoin market assessment

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Current price situation

5 charts to draw the picture.


==> Bearish .

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Short interest

Bitmex 28.5% shorts 71.5% longs

Bitfinex 25% shorts 75% longs

IG clients 16% shorts 84% longs

Other brokers refuse to say apparently. Must be the same.

CME: The usual, small are very bullish 25% bears 75% bulls, funds & commercial are bearish 60-70%.


Pretty extreme but almost only retail trades this market, and they are generally always bullish .

==> Bearish .

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Social network sentiment

Extremely hostile towards bears. Bulls are not laughing anymore.
They are grouping up, calling bears names, threatening them, banning them.
There are still a few "1 million soon" calls (there always are), but euphoria there is no more.

==> Bearish .

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News & fundamentals

Bad, with in particular news of corruption, criminals being arrested, dark net volumes soaring.
New interest in Bitcoin is much lower than in november 2017 - February 2018 according to google trends, with a little peak (way lower than late 2017) in June. We are at mid 2018 and early 2019 levels (low).
The average transaction is still 50c to 1 dollar. LN did not fulfill its promise of solving the network issues.
The promised Bakkt success did not happen (go figure), typical daily volumes for the contract are around 50. Bitcoin . Buy the rumor sell the news?

==> Bearish .

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Assessment ==>
Anxiety. Trapped bulls. Further downside likely.
Target: $6000 to full retrace of the 2019 bubble, with a possible bounce in the meantime.
Oct 18
Comment: When I make a clean well constructed idea very few people care so wonder why I troll (and why so many others also troll and just post "Bitcoin 1 million soon).

I am going to try and time the market, just for fun.

If the price hits the treasure mark X, that would be a good entry point:









Those are all the times in BTC history the price bottomed more than twice:

I think the most likely is low 6000s by mid november.

I would like to show something very interesting:

Oct 21
Comment:

Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery. We will fight them on the beaches... ~ Winston Churchill
Bitcoin's terrible sequel ??? !!!
Reply
Great post, glad I stumbled across you. I love that you have about a dozen points to back your position, I totally agree, except I'm optimistic that we bottom in the upper 6k's/lower 7's. The 50 week MA (currently about 6700) has been very solid throughout bitcoin's history.
+1 Reply
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