Bitcoin squeezed out another rally like it was nothing. I am again amazed about the strength of this market the past month. Where alts were hesitating a lot the past half year, they made up a lot the past few weeks. They have been very strong since yesterday's rally. Growing during sideways price action of Bitcoin, like the good old times again. There was a bump in the road today, when Bitcoin made that fast 300 point drop. Alts were getting sold off quite hard within a few minutes. Now half a day later, most have made up the bigger part of it again. So at this point, still a lot of strength in the market.
The target of the big triangle is a bit difficult to be sure about. The minimum target i see is around 9200/9300. But one can argue it's higher and all i can say it is possible. The big triangle could even be seen as a big bull flag, which has a target much higher even.
Earlier today i posted an update in my channels about a possible local double top for Bitcoin, just when the drop was starting. It went very fast but the bounce was decent and eventually the bear flag was taking a lot of time and we have simply moved up again. Now it looks like that bear flag has turned into a channel as we can see on the left. While i am writing this it is almost breaking. If it does, we could see another retest of the 8650. So even though the double top has become less likely, it can still happen if we make a quick drop to the 8650 again. Based on how the market has been moving past month, even if we touch the 8650 again, if it doesn't break within like 30m (60m) max, it could easily get turned around again. Bears simply failed many times the past 2 months.
The current formation can also be turned into a triangle, so if we don't see real reaction from the break of the channel, that a triangle version is more likely to happen. If we see another touch of 8950, it will become very likely to see it break eventually. On the right have drawn a possible bull flag as well. So even if we drop now, but not seeing a big volume dump, it can easily even find support around 8600. If this level we could be headed towards the double top target around 8400. However, usually when the market is extremely bullish (like the past weeks), it is more likely to find support above that level. I know in theory it can drop to 8300/8400, but it would not fit the pattern of the past month, of bulls being in full control.
As mentioned yesterday, i said that if we see alts grow even more, i could not really think of a reason to why we won't continue the coming days. Even though ETH and XRP are falling a bit behind, others rallied even more in the meantime.
I talked about it a few times, but just a reminder, during big rallies corrections are usually fast and violent. Like we had twice the past 3 weeks. I think that the 6800/7000 is a mid-term level for this bull trend. A break of 8200/8300 could mean a bigger correction might happen. But for now, think short term the 8600ish is important to keep the speed of the rally alive. 8500 is what i think should be the max even. So above the 8600/700, means bulls are in full control.
At this point i just can't make mid-term predictions, as long as things don't really cool down it's pure guessing IMO. When i do have a view again, i will let you know.
Previous analysis:
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First of all, these little zigzag movements are usually a sign of consolidation. So one has to keep that in mind when looking at the current movement and pattern that may occur. So the channel broke, but it took like forever to make that drop. This is not normal for a pattern like that. Also broke the triangle and again no real reaction. Where the green support zone keeps holding. This usually tels us again that it doesn't want to drop and prob wants to go the other way.
It is still moving below the triangle now, so in theory it can still make a drop. So think we can say that bulls need to get it above the 8800ish again and then become likely we see it move even higher. If not, i don't think another attack of the 6650 wil hold again.
We had a few situations like these the past 2 weeks as well. Each time bears failed to reach their targets. So for this pattern to hold, we prob need to see the 8550/8600 hold for the bulls. Than it could still be part of the bull flag on the right.
So at this point, can't say anything else that bull are in favor, but we should also not forget that we have made an insane move the past month, so it will be a matter of time until it makes a big drop (correction) and it will prob come at a moment nobody sees coming, because that's usually how it goes.
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So the triangle resistance eventually did it's work. Made a drop to the 8600ish and bounced up again. Now it seems we have another channel. Past month or so, this usually showed that bulls are still in control because the drops move inside of a channel. So unless it breaks down, think we can assume bulls are still in control. 8800 still seems to be a short term level to break for the bulls. For the bears, need a volume break of 8600ish
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Stil not a lot going on, seems the channels and the triangle still have some meaning, but no real moves from either side. Assuming it's more bullish than bearish, kind of disappointing that it just can bounce up above the 8800. So don't want to say already that bulls are getting a bit weaker now, but if we drop back in the channel again, would be likely to see it drop to the low again.
Not really the movement i am used to seeing inside of a bull flag. So think below the 8800ish, bull should be a bit careful.
Just keep dreaming, you'll soon be taught a lesson.
UnknownUnicorn4142368
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Big Short is coming
SpartaBTC
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BTC fractal May-June 2018 and the situation is now.
In favor of the fall:
1) The growth of the market without corrections is observed since February.
2) 4 green candles in a row on the monthly chart.
3) Two unclosed gaps on SME
4) Futures expiration on May 31st.
5) RSI shows a bearish divergence.
Leon_G
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@SpartaBTC, really nice spot, interesting because i spotted this pattern today also when i was checking 2018 highs and i thought exactly the same as you. All are hoping for the 9k while many set sell at 9.3-9.5 so who will pump it if ther are so many sellers waiting ? And to top this, we had already the same situation this year on a smaller timeframe when we broke a triangle and afterwards we dropped hard.
SpartaBTC
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@Leon_G, Yes, I support you in BTC. At least more likely to fall than grow.
tommyf1001
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Great analysis Botje. I am thinking we will see a drop soon if this ends up repeating the April 2018 fractal:
botje11
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@tommyf1001, I had this fractal a few weeks ago, was almost perfect even, until that drop to 7000/6400. But now it is almost similar again indeed. Very good to keep an eye on it
tommyf1001
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@botje11, Yea I've been tracking several fractals the past couple weeks. Every single one lined up perfectly until the recent pump up to current levels which voided almost all of them, and only this fractal remained as a viable one. I also like how volume is matching up too so definitely be keeping my eye on this. Thanks for your input!
botje11
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@tommyf1001, Your very welcome. They can be very useful sometimes, so most def worth it to use as a guideline. This last pump was perfect for the April 2018 rally, just that dump to 6400/7000 messed it up. Everything was in line, even the alts. But as i posted it, just before it broke out from 8200 to 8400, it got big rejection and since made that dump
STPAUL007
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It will probably push up to 9400-9800 range before pullback