This is a continuation of the same projection of a 3-drives pattern, linked below. Clearly, there has been no rally to a reversal at the expected channel intersection, but we seem to finally be rounding up the bowl now, likely as a final price pump before a deep selloff to come as we approach a crucial May 10th deadline for China exchanges and banks. The overhead 4H ichi cloud and the long-term $428 support/resistance line, combined with the downward channel itself, means there's not a lot of headroom for a rally here, but the momentum is building anyway, and just like we saw at point "A", at some point it will get silly and those who have been accumulating for a week will be desperate to dump when the selloff comes.UPDATE 5/7: rally has run all the way up and kissed that ichi cloud and hit the top of the channel. Point B is clearly defined now. expecting a selloff at any moment...**UPDATE 5/8**: this china-driven rally shows no sign of stopping, and now is pushing up against the channel top. I've just posted a new chart below showing a very likely scenario where point "B" is actually located up at $470, point "3" is down at $353, and the wave ratios actually form perfect 2.0 proportions again. It also forms a massive intersection with the long-term bear triangle right at May 10th....(once again, the downward channel bottom boundary has been shifted up when I publish the chart. should be shown touching the bottom points of the pink triangles)
I'm now growing more inclined to believe this rally could take us to a max of $470, and kiss the bear triangle before plummeting
ronfkingswanson
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So i just noticed an alternate scenario here, which will pinch those wearing tons of shorts a lot -- there is a possibility we could have a "crazy bull" rally all the way up to the intersection with the long-term bear triangle and the upward channel, for BTC-e at $470. That would top out right about May 10th. If it got there, would be prime territory for dumping all the coins accumulated on the way up the pump rally, and the ratios would push the low down to $353. Remember, the market moves in the direction of maximum pain for most retail traders, and there's plenty of shorts expecting a drop right now
ronfkingswanson
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few more hours and china is still pushing up, with no sign of slowing. we haven't definitively broken out of the channel yet, but it's not acting like it's going to drop at any second either. I'm leaning towards this new high "B" at 470
ronfkingswanson
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close-up views of the same rally forming. I drew the yellow scribbles right before we punched thru the cloud. 0_0 following the trajectory so perfectly it's spooky
ronfkingswanson
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7 hours later and this pump rally has progressed (despite huge ask walls on BTCE) exactly as projected, and touched the very resistance expected. Even the RSI has kissed the same horizontal trendline that it did moments before plunging from point "A"
johnrfraser
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It's broken into your cloud...does this mean a change of thought on this concept?
ronfkingswanson
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not broken, just a perfect touch of the wick. confirms the projection quite nicely, actually
johnrfraser
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I only hope you're right. I got out expecting sub 415 today :-(
nick.stoneman.5
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Very timely chart Ron - very clear and helpful analysis - thank you. You've been spot on with this so far. Even if we go straight up from here the stops on my shorts mean I'll be taking profits. If we get the drop then a take off I'll be making more profit. Your charts have helped greatly.