Capitulation (monthly analysis for march)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
~ Reminder: 60 days left until the halving.

~ Right now BTCUSD is touching the monthly S3 pivot for the fifth time in its history.
The four previous occurrences of BTCUSD reaching and/or falling below the third standard deviation (S3 pivot ):
October 2013, January 2015, August 2016, November 2018
The first three of those the S3 ended up being support for perfect dips before huge bull trends, the last one when broken below was the start of a serious bear run.

You could say the statistics are in favor of BTC playing a reversal in this area.
But on thin ice: if we start closing below, likely start another run to the downside.

~ How I see this month playing out:
If price can keep closing above the S3 (~5500-5650, yellow box) and play out some reversal pattern, this could form a nice bottom here.
If price can close daily above 6800-7000 resistance (green box) likely make a try for the highs around 9300.
If we start closing dailies below the S3, it will likely keep moving down until the end of the month.
Some relevant areas/targets if we start running away from the S3: monthly 55ema (~5300), ~4000 support base (red box) and weekly 377ema (~3700)

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> Not financial advice, I'm not a financial advisor. <


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