Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross last Wednesday and is headed for its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), a level that has been intact since November 03 2025, acting as the Bear Cycle's natural Resistance.
In fact, it has been the technical Resistance on all previous BTC Bear Cycles since 2014. As these charts show Bitcoin tested the 1W MA200 around the same time on those years as now and every time it hit it, the price instantly reversed to an aggressive sell-off.
The 1D MA200 test coincided with a test (or near test) of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (blue) level. In 2014 and 2022 it also took place exactly on a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross formation, which as mentioned just happened.
At the same time, on all previous three Bear Cycles, the 1D MA200 test took place just before the 0.5 Time Fibonacci (dashed black). If the current Bear Cycle ends up roughly 1-year long, then we are currently 3 weeks after its middle. Unless we have a slighter longer than 1 year one, like 2014.
In any event the symmetry among Cycles and basic structure seems to hold almost flawlessly. As a result, with the 1D MA200 currently at 83500, it appears that BTC is headed towards a rejection and last month's strong rally could be nothing more than a 'Bull Trap' as it has been historically and will open up the way for one more round of aggressive selling until the eventual Bear Cycle bottom.
So what do you think? Will history repeat itself and make BTC get rejected near the 1D MA200? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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In fact, it has been the technical Resistance on all previous BTC Bear Cycles since 2014. As these charts show Bitcoin tested the 1W MA200 around the same time on those years as now and every time it hit it, the price instantly reversed to an aggressive sell-off.
The 1D MA200 test coincided with a test (or near test) of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (blue) level. In 2014 and 2022 it also took place exactly on a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross formation, which as mentioned just happened.
At the same time, on all previous three Bear Cycles, the 1D MA200 test took place just before the 0.5 Time Fibonacci (dashed black). If the current Bear Cycle ends up roughly 1-year long, then we are currently 3 weeks after its middle. Unless we have a slighter longer than 1 year one, like 2014.
In any event the symmetry among Cycles and basic structure seems to hold almost flawlessly. As a result, with the 1D MA200 currently at 83500, it appears that BTC is headed towards a rejection and last month's strong rally could be nothing more than a 'Bull Trap' as it has been historically and will open up the way for one more round of aggressive selling until the eventual Bear Cycle bottom.
So what do you think? Will history repeat itself and make BTC get rejected near the 1D MA200? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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Trade Forex on TradingView (zero commissions)👉 go.tradenation.com/visit/?bta=37104&brand=tradenation
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I trade Crypto (perps/swaps) with👉 app.defi.app/join/5b8X2l
Funded trading -10% off👉 hyrotrader.com/?coupon=tradingshot
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.