Jocoin
Long

BTC is out of RED zone .. $23,000 Could be a new ATH!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In our previous idea: we have been counting on Blue-trendline & Green-supportline to resume uptrend. Especially after we adjusted blue trendline to the point it meet together with green line and its remain valid. Price bounced from this point.

Our bearish condition still active:
To turn Bearish we will look for 1D / 2D candle close below Blue trend line and Green support line. below 9k level.

Reasons to remain bullish: =>(still active)
-Price bounced from Blue trend line and Green support line (previous resistance turned support)
-Daily hidden bullish divergence on RSI ( orange lines )
-2D hidden bullish divergence which is more TRUSTED ( picture below )
-Huge bullish Bull Flag ( purple lines )
-ABC correction with C leg lower than A, forming bull-flag ( healthy correction )
-Repeated daily fractals on RSI & MACD , we can expect a higher macd wave formation
-Oscillator 1,2,3,4 from previous bull run, we can expect same pattern repeated
====
-Daily double bottom at 9100 level
-Breakout of dotted RED line which is forming Failing Wedge with lower purple line of bull-flag
====
Do not forget to be patience and give the market time it needs to play out!. Follow the idea for updates.
To confirm our view price should take over 11k,12k in the next days and final confirmation will be after breaking out purple lines bull-flag .

We got more reasons on the short term recovery which i would like to summarize in pictures from our previous idea updates during past 2 weeks:

-4H massive hidden bullish div spotted at 9100 1st time and price bounced to 11100. Its effect still in play. Price didn't go lower than that date yet.
-4H hidden bearish div spotted at 11100. where others were calling for inverse H&S breakout! after it price retrace and formed H&S with target around 9400 we didn't believe in because of lack of volume confirmation but it seems bearish div did play out which took price back to 9100 again.
-4H hidden bullish div followed by classic bullish div . we spotted same pattern before on 15m chart which resulted in price bounce and we expected when same thing repeated in higher time frame that will led to stronger bounce.
-Price bounced from blue+green lines
-If we zoom out 2d chart, we can see how 2017 blue uptrend channel support/resistance lines still playing very well.
Look at the price action at 8000-9000 area where channel support was a strong resistance till price successfully broke above it.....it shoot up breaching the channel resistance line but failed to get 2d candle close above it ... only one single 2d candle close above it out of 8 before price start heading down again and WILL NOW PREVIOUS RESISTANCE WORKING AS SUPPORT?!!! Reminder: once we get 2d candle close above upper resistance line +12k level price will resume climbing up.

Some people are mixing divergences so i did a brief explanation that i would like to include:
1-classic:
classic bullish div .... price= lower low / indicator= higher low ( Draw bottoms not tops )
http://www.forextips.com/wp-content/uplo...
classic bearish div .... price= higher high / indicator= lower high ( Draw tops not bottoms )
http://www.forextips.com/wp-content/uplo...
2-hidden:
hidden bullish div .... price= higher low / indicator= lower low ( Draw bottoms not tops )
http://www.forextips.com/wp-content/uplo...
hidden bearish div .... price= lower high / indicator= higher high ( Draw tops not bottoms )
http://www.forextips.com/wp-content/uplo...


21k/23k target explained:

1-Waves:
-Lets agree since btc bottomed 3100 we started a bull run and from coin behavior view this is impulse waves NOT! a massive B correction like others calling.
-Since 3100 btc started major wave 5, its used to terminate beyond wave 3 top and its slightly longer than wave 3 (Black Dashed Arrow) showing exact same length of major wave 3.
-Major wave 4 bottomed at 3100 is higher than major wave 2 and we can notice the behavior of current impulse waves are jumping higher than the previous bull run. this could be more confirmation for my targets area.

2-The blue channel:
The price has been ranging in this channel before starting previous bull run and after the price went parabolic and started to correct, the same channel resistance and support played as ranging area for sometime before breaking its support and start heading down.
So i am expecting same channel to play as strong resistance and support during the current bull run. I am not calling the moon.

3-Trend-Based Fib Extension:
If we draw fib ext. for the extended wave 3 in purple count, from wave (2) green 5000 to wave (3) green 14000 back to wave (4) green 9000
We will get 3 important ext level which are going to be strong resistances.
0.618 at 14k / 1.414 at 21k / 1.618 at 23k
===========================================
Please understand that we are only analysis the price movement and sharing my view with others only for education purposes, none of my ideas stand as buy/sell signals and i am long term holder, This community is about sharing and learning and there is nobody got the right to judge if ideas being right or wrong!! If you don't agree just walk a way.
If sharing my views help, leave a follow, give thumb up, your opinions are welcomed.
===========================================
Previous idea:
Original idea:
Aug 03
Trade active: What a breakout! .. very nice follow thru 4H,1D candles. 4H divergences pattern at 9300 has led to strong bounce as expected .. Blue+Green lines stood intact once again!

-Breakout of dotted RED line which is forming Failing Wedge with lower line of bull-flag at 10050
We have been waiting for breakout of RED line and we got it after price double bottom.

This short term recovery is a clear confirmation that price still in a bull run .. indicators did cool off and has started to point up again, we also got daily MACD cross up.

We are expecting to see 11500-12000 range in next few days, if the price able to get candle close above 12k on daily basis that will trigger huge bull flag continuation pattern and price could head straight to 0.618 fib ext. at 14500-15000 range.

Good for who did follow! Thanks for people respect our view even if they disagree, Haters .. there is no wonder they all vanished lol
Aug 04
Trade active: Previously we said: ((I am still waiting for 11k move OR daily close below Blue and Green line DAILY CHART))

((To confirm our view price should take over 11k,12k in the next days and final confirmation will be after breaking out purple line of bull-flag))

11k move is DONE ..... Last update still in play .... Strong move could be coming soon .. We will keep a close eye on 12k range.
Aug 04
Trade active: 11500 ... DONE!
That was impressive and so fast 2 hours later :D
Aug 05
Trade active: 2 days ago, we mentioned:
We are expecting to see 11500-12000 range in next few days, if the price able to get candle close above 12k on daily basis that will trigger huge bull flag continuation pattern and price could head straight to 0.618 fib ext. at 14500-15000 range.

Now its time to take over 12k , price could make strong move and fly.. some people think price should get significant retrace at this resistance but btc used to surprise most of people ... bull flag breakout incoming as well as 2017 uptrend resistance on 2d chart
Aug 05
Comment:
Aug 06
Comment: Wow this is huge again guys, AS WE EXPECTED!!!!!!
What if price break 12k with daily candle +1000/+2000 like there is no resistance in this area!!!!!! I will be watching for it to be honest
I was in discussion with someone yesterday and that's what i exactly said to him!

12k ....... DONE! -- Strong Move ....... DONE! -- Bull Flag Breakout .... DONE!
price could head straight to 0.618 fib ext. at 14500-15000 range(IN PLAY :D)
Aug 06
Trade active: Will BTC take over this stubborn resistance this time! ( click to read details )
Aug 06
Trade active: Failing wedge + 4H hidden bullish divergence .... this could be it guys, wait for 1d,2d candle close
Aug 06
Comment: 1H chart showing same thing, I will never look to 1H,4H chart again if this fail.......!
Aug 07
Trade active: Divergence did well so far and breakout could be incoming any time, 12H chart Ichimoku is very interesting ... We just had a bullish kumo cloud breakout, we have a bullish kumo cloud twist, and tenkan-sen crossed the kijun-sen, tenkan line holding price nice and all signs look bullish.

Time to take over: 12k ... bull flag .... 2d chart 2017 uptrend stubborn resistance.
Price could head straight to 0.618 fib ext. at 14500-15000 range(IN PLAY)
Aug 07
Trade active: BTC: 12H Ichimoku showing interesting bullish signs! ( click to read details )
Aug 07
Trade active: 1H,4H chart did not fail us .. divergence did very well .. price broke out failing wedge and now we got the re-test! .. we got 2d MACD cross completed ... btc entering crazy mode and a huge move could be coming!
Aug 08
Trade active: We showed how we had a strong bullish reasons 2 ideas 2 times below 9500 on daily chart and we got the price back up to 12k ......... 2017 uptrend channel stubborn resistance on 2d chart which it looks like price will take over it this time finally! ......... 12H Ichimoku gave us a more supportive bullish signs ......... Lower time frames screaming bullish! .... Bull-flag breakout could be triggered at any moment!

4H chart: we saw failing wedge and hidden bullish divergence which both did very well and we got the breakout followed by the retest ... RSI got 4 times lower low while price 4 times higher high which looks like this coming to an end very soon .... SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE has been formed and its imminent breakout with targets around 10100/13200 ... we say 80% UP on this one.
Aug 08
Comment: This could be the last idea to share with you guys!......
Aug 08
Comment: Check above idea, click on it to find out why?!
Aug 09
Trade active: Thanks again guys for this massive support .. excuse my language, English not the first!. Its just me .. Sometimes using (We) because (I) always heavy to use all the time!
I was distracted writing this last idea and miss described couple of things that would like to fix for transparency ....
1st:
RSI got 4 times lower low while price 4 times higher *low
Not
RSI got 4 times lower low while price 4 times higher (high)
I think we won't get RSI 5th time lower low

2nd:
SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE has been formed and its imminent breakout with targets around 10100/13200 ... we say 80% UP on this one.

This could be a bullish pennant rather than sym triangle .. we know both of them are identical but what distinguish pennant is considered a short term pattern that can form in days depend on which time frame used .. sym triangle takes longer ... 2nd thing is the flagpole , which is not present in the formation of the sym triangle. look at the following picture:
http://tutorials.topstockresearch.com/Ch...

This will change our target to 15k level which match with our previous target we mentioned many times before:
Price could head straight to 0.618 fib ext. at 14500-15000 range(IN PLAY)
I will be so surprised if the price head lower from here! good luck to everyone.
Aug 10
Comment: We all know 4H chart price still in develop and we are trying to spot a pattern that still in formation which could be changed
This could be a bull-flag rather than pennant .. with the same targets .

Pennant invalidated .. the breakdown is not confirmed .. I don't advise anyone to trade it ... this could be a bear trap ... better to wait and chill for more price development for better view ... I think 10900-800 is strong support that price should not break below with 4H candle close for trend continuation.

We didn't expect RSI will go more lower low but hidden bull div could still be in development OR a stronger one could be formed if the RSI and price would like to retrace more ... so we strongly believe price will not crash like others saying .. look at the picture below.

Lower 4H time frames could be tricky that's why we said before that we focus on higher timeframes .. we look to lower timeframe to spot momentum and clues.

We still have strong reasons in play to resume bullish uptrend on daily chart and lets not forget 2d chart MACD crossover we just got last 2 days as well as 2d hidden bullish divergence that effect still active. Lets watch how this will develop!
P.S check the below idea for detailed bullish reasons on higher timeframes which still ACTIVE.
BTC is out of RED zone .. $23,000 Could be a new ATH!
Aug 11
Comment: This is my current view for this idea:

I can't tell you if the price will drop more but there are signs to resume uptrend!

We have seen before on 15m chart when hidden bull div followed by classic bull div that led to a bounce .... later when same pattern appeared on 4H chart we expected that will led to stronger bounce below 9500 and price jumped to 12000 ...

Now we can see same pattern in develop on 4H chart as well as 1H chart .. have a look on the following pictures:

P.S. If you click play the following idea:
BTC: 12H Ichimoku showing interesting bullish signs!

It looks like price did retest the kumo cloud after we got its breakout. Is it the time to go up?!!
Aug 11
Comment: Not only 12H Ichimoku but also 12H TEMA ... This is not bullish trend EMAs ?!! Ok..maybe I am only bullish bias..............
Aug 11
Comment: Current 12H Ichimoku showing the retest of kumo cloud after it broke-out!........... I could be wrong!
Aug 12
Comment: This is the 3rd high peak near that resistance .. 26 jun, 10 jul and 6 august
First 2 times price has dropped 4200 within 6 days in each time
But this time, it has been 6 days since high peak and price still moving sideways near that resistance.

Isn't that Interesting?! .. This are my own views and none of them stand as financial advise. Trade at your own risk as everyone know!
Aug 13
Comment: 3 days ago we mentioned:
-((Pennant invalidated .. the breakdown is not confirmed .. I don't advise anyone to trade it ... this could be a bear trap ... better to wait and chill for more price development for better view ... I think 10900-800 is strong support that price should not break below with 4H candle close for trend continuation. hidden bull div could still in development OR a stronger one could be formed if the RSI and price would like to retrace more))

-So it looks like this scenario playing well so far, 10800 was a previous resistance and price retested it (horizontal purple line) .. price still moving in a bull-flag pattern and its not yet invalidated

-Another thing caught my eyes that i would like to share:
1H RSI ... this is the first time it go below 17 RSI level since price was at 5000 ... more so, this could result in huge 1h hidden bull div with previous low at 9100 as well as a giant hidden bull div with major low at 5000

-1D Ichimoku .. Showing bullish signs, We just had a bullish kumo cloud breakout, tenkan-sen crossed the kijun-sen and a bullish kumo cloud twist could be incoming?! ... A retest of daily kumo was possible that's why we also mentioned before price should not go below 10800 support area for trend continuation. More so, we had a positive daily MACD cross after long correction! lets watch how this will develop and remember anything could happen .. we only share our view that doesn't have to be correct/happen .. just keep that in mind!
Aug 14
Comment: Price has retraced to 10400 !! What a move! ... really? a thousand move during an uptrend that is jumping in thousands something that is normal and we are not trying to predict exact price because simply there is no one can.

We expected 10800 support (area) to hold for reversal and trend continuation because our aim to focus on the trend and not get lost due to market manipulation! .. exchanges/whales, doing very well moving the price on short term for their favor .. maybe liquidating heavy long/short before price make a big move to the other side ... I doubt THEY CAN CHANGE THE TREND DIRECTION!

Support/resistance doesn't mean the highest/lowest peak the price will reach ... price still could go below/above for a short period of time.

Current 1H RSI is back above 17 level forming higher lows while price form lower low ... 2 classic bull div has printed on 1H chart after hidden bull div with previous low at 9100 which is also clear on 4H chart ... price also retraced to 0.618 fib ... this maybe the div pattern we were expecting last time?! ... I would like to see explosion in next days if this is the reversal point that we have been waiting for .... if the price will drop further below 10k ... This time I will be out of the market.
Aug 15
Comment: The breakdown of 10500 was a clear sign that price will drop more .. price didn't bounce at all .. but as a holder who has early entries, is it the right time to get out now?! did we just lost the uptrend?

I asked my self a question: Is n't there a trend manipulation?
our aim to focus on the trend and not get lost due to market manipulation! .. exchanges/whales, doing very well moving the price on short term for their favor .. maybe liquidating heavy long/short before price make a big move to the other side ... I doubt THEY CAN CHANGE THE TREND DIRECTION!

In the past I lost a lot of money taking short term trades even when its good ones .. In Crypto market its very hard and so slow but if i still prefer to trade it then i decided its better to do it the right way which is less stress avoiding market manipulation and only focus on the trend!

Trade could takes months but i saved my self a ton of stress and losses. even when I turn to be wrong or make mistakes on short term like everyone. i will still get out with a nice ROE.

I was watching a lot of channels/services following most of professional traders and i didn't see anyone who is able to predict btc moves correctly most of times in anywhere! at the end it was my own choices/decisions!

I was not a professional trader and i am still learning .. changing my strategy in a risky market was a good choice for me. more so, stick to it and be patient ... at the end I am still on huge ROE no matter when i deiced to be out of the market ... but the question, is it right time now?!! or this is a trend manipulation ...... or there is no uptrend and this is just corrective wave up?!

It really depends on how much risk i am willing to take! it differ from one to another considering i am not willing to lose my mind because of trading!

I am ready to take the risk and be certain about my exist ... as a holder i would be mad if the price fly after my exist and i will be fine with less ROE if that didn't happen ... I am not bullish bias ... I am only trend bias and i will stick to my strategy.

I would like to clarify that i hold a good a mount of BTC since 3500 and 5000 in private wallet .. I did apply the same strategy on my BITMEX account with 20% of my capital that i used half of it at 3300 (x25) margin .. I was so calm, brave and lucky to open a massive amount of contracts with high leverage and less than 200 point a way of my entry to be liquidated. i added 25% more at 4900 and later the rest 25% at 7800 and 9500. My early entry did very well to keep my liquidation price far enough. at the moment its 6300

It was not easy to be so calm or be so patient when you are in x25 leverge or to not sell at every higher peaks .. instead of that we added more contracts after every correction! The difference from 14k ROE to now is massive but we seen that 2 times before and we treat it as just numbers not real money to avoid getting emotionally while taking serious decision about the TREND!

Now i know some will think, how i will hold such amount of positions for long period of time while maintain PNL and fees which is also play role with liquidation price. There is a nice trick for how to open contracts as a market maker ( not at market price ) that way you will get a rebate, when PREDICTED FUNDING RATE calculated periodically which differ all time since i am considered as a market maker. for Ex. my PNL was more than +1.3 btc and now its -1.1 btc ... Sometimes you can take fees not just pay fees! .. Yes

My current plan is to be patient .. to focus on 12H..1D..2D time frames at the moment ..
I have 3 scenarios in mind:
--price will start to recover and reverse from 9500
--price will retest 9100
--price will resume to drop and 9100 will be broken with a few hundreds to stop out everyone! Maybe 8800

I will RISK my exist point to be below 8700
Aug 15
Comment: 2D chart:
-once again price at 2017 channel support .. price could bounce from here but worst scenario is to fakeout the support the same way it did with the resistance.
-price touching 2d 50ema .. was it really needed before resuming up or will it hold the price? ..
-RSI 2D Hidden bull div confirmed with 2 previous lower low and price higher low at 5000 and 7500, so either 9100 double bottom was 3rd higher low or price will reach 8800 that will still show 3rd lower low on RSI.
-MACD also showing confirmed 2 lower low .. will we get the 3rd?
-bullish 2d Ichimoku and price still above cloud with strong support around 8800

1d chart:
-green support line on daily still holding and blue trend line could still be intact.
-the correction since 14k could be ABCDE instead of ABC
-price bounced from daily 100ema at 9500 .. I will start to doubt this is uptrend if price retrace to daily 200ema at 8200
-Ichimoku looking bad with bearish signs but this could be deceptive.
-RSI on daily matching what we said on 2d chart.

12H:
-Price retraced to 200ema and bounced from there .. this could explain the first scenario
-Ichimoku looking bad with bearish signs but this could be deceptive.
-RSI is near 30

4H:
-Either price will reverse or drop more there is still high possibility of this giant hidden bullish div on 4H with major low at 7500

1H:
-Its funny price started to jump since i started to write this post from 9500 to 10200 and its so interesting the way RSI showing how divergence did play out but i doubt this is just a bounce rather than a reverse.

>> This is my own view/plan and none of our ideas stand as financial advise OR buy/sell signals ... We are holder, we only trade the overall trend ... Trade at your own risk!!.... (you already know that)
Aug 15
Trade active: BTC: Isn't The Trend is Your Friend, Until it Ends?!
Aug 16
Comment: 1H RSI is interesting:
We saw this hidden bearish div yesterday on 1H chart forming at 10400 and its looks like its confirmed now .. the classic bullish div on 1H led to a bounce from 9500 to 10400 but i still think there is a high possibility that it could be a bounce rather than a reverse ... there is a possible descending broadening wedge formation and price should break above 10250 (hourly 100ema) for breakout otherwise it will start head down which can led to another lower low on price and higher low on RSI which could be last leg down before break out the pattern .. 5th wave could be in play?! if price drop i will be watching price action area between 9200 and 8800 .. please remember ... we only share our own personal view as a holder who has early entries! For me it will be another chance to buy more.
Aug 16
Comment: 4H RSI:
We had a massive hidden bearish div 13200 and 12200 tops that i totally ignored at that time although i noticed it but my bullish trend bias was challenged enough to not consider it ... now it really worth to mention since my all posts are about to learn either right/wrong .. I am glad that i am still learning while sharing!

But lets not ignore the massive hidden bullish div with previous major low at 7500 that could be in already ... either price will drop a little more or not ... that will even may led to a followed classic bull div on 4H chart and we saw that pattern before on different time frames that always led to a bounce or reverse.
Aug 16
Comment: 1D: Cup & Handle
Price broke out 1h descending broadening wedge and it could be heading to next resistance at 10800 of this descending channel where also hourly 200ema located. If the price able to break out of this channel in the next few days ... cup and handle target is 15000.

If 1st scenario will play out as reversal that will mean ( 2d 50ema ... 1d 100ema ... 12h 200ema )>> test at 9500 was needed before resuming uptrend!
Aug 16
Trade active: Daily BTC Chart: Still Show all this bullish signs..?! ( click to read )
Aug 18
Comment: 1H chart: show a possible bullish reversal ascending triangle that still in formation ... RSI has printed a hidden bull div after a complex classic bull div.

This will be INVALIDATED below 10000 ... the breakout above 10500 (where hourly 200ema located) will confirm the pattern targeting 11300 ... it will be also a confirmation for the breakout of descending channel (the cup handle) ... cup&handle and bull flag will be confirmed only above 12k.
Aug 19
Trade active
Aug 20
Comment: Price broke out the reversal ascending triangle as well as descending channel as expected .. hourly 200ema (around 10600) should serve as support.
Before the breakout we spotted inverse H&S on 4H RSI that was interesting .. it looks will play out, breakout occurred at RSI 50 targeting RSI 85 ... 4H hidden bull div did very well.
Now i believe we got a clear reversal signs and 9500 was reversal point (1st scenario) 10500 area should not break below to keep it valid.
The cup handle breakout (descending channel) is initial confirmation for the pattern and final confirmation will be only after 11500-12000 .. targeting 15000 area.

I had spent enough time before deciding this a cup&handle or not .. I did consider the following:
-cup depth and left side was higher than right side with a slope angle
-daily close was a hammer candlestick.
-handle usually (not always) goes to 50% ... less retrace is better bullish sign ... similar examples with more than 50% on the following links:
After all, we still said its A POSSIBLE pattern to keep a close eye on and we will get more confirmation within next days!
https://d1p5pyutve46t9.cloudfront.net/wp...
https://forextraininggroup.com/wp-conten...
https://forextraininggroup.com/wp-conten...
https://www.tradingsetupsreview.com/wp-c...
Aug 20
Comment: That was a perfect retrace to hourly 200ema as we mentioned around 10600 should serve as support. It did hold the price so far. A new hidden bull div on 1H has printed on RSI as well as a failing wedge bullish continuation pattern is in formation .. lets see if it will play out!
11300 remains short term target for the ascending triangle mentioned before.
Aug 21
Comment: 4H chart: show price failed to stay above 200ema after breakout of descending channel and now it retraced to test it ... hidden bearish div as well as H&S did play well to dump price again which target has been reached ... lets watch whatever coming next will be so interesting!!
Aug 21
Trade active: (CME vs Bakkt) .. Why they said, Buy the Rumor and Sell.... ?! (click to read)
Aug 29
Trade active: BTC: Panic Sell OR Buy ... Next? -- ( click to read )
dont be so sure yet
+1 Reply
Jocoin MostertFrancois
@MostertFrancois, So, are you?!
Reply
Is this a parabolic move on a smaller scale?
+1 Reply
I wonder how much this has to do with the stock markets all over the world selling off.. people possibly putting their money in Bitcoin? This could be the start of a massive bull run if so. Investors are putting their money where they see growth, gold, silver, paladium, and bitcoin are all growing.
Reply
Jocoin BankofEngland
@BankofEngland, Our analysis only based on TA, no fundamentals, news, adaption, etc are considered during our analysis which has been right since 3500 all the way up to 7800 then 14k, we called for reversal below 9500 twice based on TA as well excepting short term movements and price actions based on coin behavior as well as indicators.... that's all

Nothing control the coin path and its only following its own behavior.... price moves then other things follow up!! you may disagree but that's my own opinion.
+2 Reply
This is getting scary..
+2 Reply
Jocoin Binzaydan
@Binzaydan, Yep but we keep nailing it!:D
+1 Reply
@Jocoin, You absolutely are. Amazing prediction
+3 Reply
Jocoin Binzaydan
@Binzaydan, Thank you:)
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar Shows How It Works Chart Features Pricing House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Help Center Refer a friend Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Refer a friend My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out