BTC/USD - Market holding its breath. Decisive moment to come! 😮

We are on the brink of a massive movement. Bitcoin is at most a week away from a significant move.

Here is what I see on the weekly view:

Since March 2020 when we had that massive drop in all markets, Bitcoin has established a clear trendline at 33° degrees which has not been re-tested since October 2020 when we entered a much stronger rally at 49° degrees as indicated by the dotted trendline.

Now price is approaching a key decision moment. Will it make the 49° trendline support and push out above the yellow rectangle or will we fall down to our massive support at $41k which also coincides with a key 38 Fib level and our 33° trendline.

The indicators on weekly are all bearish:

1. Volume has crashed on an ascending price = BEARISH.
2. MACD is falling and about to do a bearish cross on its moving averages and histogram = BEARISH
3. RSI is falling = BEARISH

These elements make me lead bearish in the short to medium term (up to July). I can explain:

1. Bitcoin has historically corrected between 30% - 40% during a bull market.
2. We only had one +30% correction so far during this bull market in January which did not even touch the 49° rally trendline.
3. If we are to believe the indicators, then we are due for another +30% correction as indicated by the second rectangle. At most we should fall up to -35% to ensure we keep the bullish bias intact long term and we do not invalidate the 33° trendline.
4. This correction should stop around $41k. A break below that will make even the most ardent bulls bearish.

When does the bear scenario activate?

If we break the $54k support level and the 49° trendline.

We also have good support at $50k, but by that moment I think the bearish momentum will take us to $41k. Question will be then if the 33° trendline can hold us and push us up again as Bears will be all over the place.

However if this support at $54k holds, we're good to continue up on our 49° rally.

I am not here to predict what will happen. This is what the chart says right now. Make your bets.

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