We are on the brink of a massive movement. Bitcoin is at most a week away from a significant move.
Here is what I see on the weekly view:
Since March 2020 when we had that massive drop in all markets, Bitcoin has established a clear trendline at 33° degrees which has not been re-tested since October 2020 when we entered a much stronger rally at 49° degrees as indicated by the dotted trendline.
Now price is approaching a key decision moment. Will it make the 49° trendline support and push out above the yellow rectangle or will we fall down to our massive support at 41K which also coincides with a key 38 Fib level and our 33° trendline.
The indicators on weekly are all bearish:
1. Volume has crashed on an ascending price = BEARISH. 2. MACD is falling and about to do a bearish cross on its moving averages and histogram = BEARISH 3. RSI is falling = BEARISH
These elements make me lead bearish in the short to medium term (up to July). I can explain:
1. Bitcoin has historically corrected between 30% - 40% during a bull market. 2. We only had one +30% correction so far during this bull market in January which did not even touch the 49° rally trendline. 3. If we are to believe the indicators, then we are due for another +30% correction as indicated by the second rectangle. At most we should fall up to -35% to ensure we keep the bullish bias intact long term and we do not invalidate the 33° trendline. 4. This correction should stop around 41k. A break below that will make even the most ardent bulls bearish.
When does the bear scenario activate?
If we break the 54K support level and the 49° trendline.
We also have good support at 50k, but by that moment I think the bearish momentum will take us to 41k. Question will be then if the 33° trendline can hold us and push us up again as Bears will be all over the place.
However if this support at 54K holds, we're good to continue up on our 49° rally.
I am not here to predict what will happen. This is what the chart says right now. Make your bets.
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That 2.2T Marketcap had me on edge.
And glad it confirmed my suspicions.
Good analysis. As always