This logarithmic chart dates back to August 2011. Look at the trend line which formed on April 2013 to date. It looks steady, does it not? Yes massive volatile 80% swings etc. Never the less, it’s a steady up trend.
Now take a look at the first ath of 1.1k in 2013, following that through to the next ath at 19.9k in 2017. We can quickly establish the curve (orange line). If we also take a look at the black horizontal line from the 1.1k ath and line that up with the run to the 19.9k ath we can see it is quite a move to the upside.
Let’s do the same from 19.9k to todays price. It is clear that from the black horizontal line we have yet to see a major upside to the curve as well as not jumping to high from the black horizontal line.
The black vertical lines are cyclic lines. See from 2013 high to 2017 high. We go through a stage of 1 cyclic stage before running to new ath in the next cyclic. Both the 2013 and 2017 highs touched the top trend line (blue line). You’ve heard of the bitcoin cycle elongating? I believe it is true, not to mention the crpto expert’s who back this up. The likes of Michael Saylor & Raoul Pal. Any way, the second cyclic on 2022 closed way lower than the previous two tops. Which leads me to think there is a much larger price to be achieved for bitcoin before the bear market.
You could also say that the current price is to low to enter a bear market. Going off previous highs, btc has never closed lower in a bear market than the previous ath high. For btc to drop 80% from the 69k ath would close btc below the previous 19.9k ath in 2017. Even the 2013 ath of 1.1k did not close lower than the previous high of $254. Again in Jan 2012 at $7, it ran to $16 but never closed lower than $7.
Based on this theory I see btc enter a bear market around 110k which could be mid September 2022.
What is your opinion here, let me know bellow.
This is my own opinion, charting and research, not financial advice.
Great insight! I think some forget the reason BTC is off that orange curve line right now is several unique reasons combined in a short amount of time (China, hawkish fed, Kazakhstan, Omicron fears) and if not for those, I think it'd be right on track. I also think the fact that price levels are even where they are right now and not much lower show a lot about BTC and where it may be headed. I believe it will bounce back soon (the CPI release tomorrow should impact price as well just not entirely sure how much/what direction).
Vision_Invest
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@Vampere thanks for your input Vampere, appreciate it. Absolutely agree with you there. To many issues causing fear. For me, china - well they always cause a fuss with btc do they not, fed - more reason to keep btc, Kazakhstan - 15% of miners offline and still showed strength, omicron will fade out just as other virus’s do. Like you say, it is showing strength while its hidden by fear.