BTCUSD - Intermediate term Bearish

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
5336 25 20
Over all I am still bullish longer term for this instrument as per my earlier chart at .

However, we are making normal retracement which might appear in monetary term rather deep and unwelcome by some. But in normal cycle upon completion of wave 3 it is normal for price to retrace to wave 4 of one cycle degree lower. So in this case it would be still possible for price to drop to 70-80 area and still be within the EW guideline. However, for now I am on cautious view feel 450-400 would suffice but likely 300-250 could be realistic.

So whilst still longer term bullish , it could offer possible short opportunity around 850 of better.
Following the price action today on Bitcoin, as explained earlier, that if the price went beyond 950 zone then I will have to review my analysis. That I have done and did so live explaining the reasons for my, which still remains that this is not an impulsive new up trend, but a bear market rally which is very strong admittedly. Many would say this is classic denial. So be it. I am still view this as Wave B retracement with implication for new down trend to resume on completion. Here is the revised chart, you can make your own decision.
Interresting analysis, thanks DanV. Enjoy seeing it from others' perspectives.
DanV daehbew
Great, between us we can get the handle on this volatile instruments. Thank you for your comments.
Also whilst in intermediate down trend - here is an update on my earlier 4Hr Chart with EW counst
Update on Bullish Pitchfork - This not ideal. As normally you need for up trending pitchfork a Low , High and Low pivots. Due to parabolic rise, I cannot see the correct low to pivot the median line. So I have used a candle from where the fast move took place. Based on that you can see valid major price inter action with the projected lines (highlighted by squares). So, as it stands at the we could bounce in what is at present a down trending cycle, at various level as it drop to these lines but ultimately, could drop to 450-300 which I have pointed out several times. Hope this helps.
Dear Dan, Is there any way we can talk in the next couple of days. I think we can repair some of what has happened, if you are open to this. Great chart, by the way. Sincerely, Beauty
Thank you for sharing your ideas. They are interesting material for thoughts:
- I agree about long term scenario
- Also it does look we have not started impulsive wave upwards yet. Therefore we are still within a correction.
- However I think this correction (wave iv) is forming a triangle. It is not a flat as you suggest. So far wave A is finished at $455 and we are probably still within wave B of this triangle. It is going to take another month or two to finish all remaining waves. Maybe even longer. We need this time to tire many participants who are overly optimistic at this stage.
DanV ryopphdi
If it does turn out to be a triangle, then I agree it will take a lot of time as that is that triangles do and it would be wave B, hence much stronger leg down in impulsive manner is still ahead of us. Triangle will whilst tire many as you say, will also get many both Bulls & Bears will try to stake their claim or make a stand in that congestion. Thanks for your observation, I will keep that in mind.
- Not sure if I read you correctly but you seem to be saying that subwave B of 4 is a triangle.
- I meant big contracting triangle as wave 4. So most probably there won't be any new low as subwave A in contracting triangles is usually longest one.. Subwave A of this triangle ($455) was the lowest point. We are in subwave B upwards. Then we will experience subwave C which will not make new low.
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