DanV
Short

BTCUSD - Intermediate term Bearish

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
5318 25 18
Over all I am still bullish longer term for this instrument as per my earlier chart at
BTUSD - Parabolic Move - Is it a Bubble?
.

However, we are making normal retracement which might appear in monetary term rather deep and unwelcome by some. But in normal cycle upon completion of wave 3 it is normal for price to retrace to wave 4 of one cycle degree lower. So in this case it would be still possible for price to drop to 70-80 area and still be within the EW guideline. However, for now I am on cautious view feel 450-400 would suffice but likely 300-250 could be realistic.

So whilst still longer term bullish , it could offer possible short opportunity around 850 of better.
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Here is 4 hour chart to show possible reason for 850 as potential resistance and could provide shorting opportunity.
snapshot
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I have to Disagree with this Because of Following Reasons:
First Being the Double Bottom Visible on Your Chart at Points: Left (iv) and x
Second: MACD Bullish divergence at Points: (A) and (X)
Third: RSI Bullish Divergence at Points: (A) and (X) (drawing a line at bottom of these points reveals it (in RSI window))
Fourth: StochRSI on Weekly Chart
Fifth: StochRSI on 3D Chart
Sixth: RSI Trend Line you have Drawn at the Upper Chart Indicates Going Lower than 450-400 Breaks the Uptrend Which is Unlikely to Happen
Seventh: Formation of Current Monthly Candle which Indicates a Healthy Retracement and not a Reversal Signal visible here
Bitcoin in LongTerm


While i Remain Disagree to this Chart and Targets Lower than 450-400, i Agree with your other prediction
BTUSD - Parabolic Move - Is it a Bubble?

which is happening perfectly atm
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daehbew HosseinMansouri
Yes this weighs on my sentiment as I've already mentioned to DanV the bullish signals. We concluded that it'd probably be best to arrange a short position after the histogram begins to subside and MACD either crosses or approaches the next divergance.
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I think the Upper Trend Line isn't Right, Check This
Weekly Uptrend Bouncing Up
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DanV MOD HosseinMansouri
Thank you for taking the time to study my chart and make good detailed argument. I appreciate it. All that you have said may well hold. However, for now I have nothing clear to conclude that the low is in place. Also from my perspective if the low was in place the bounce of the low should be gathering momentum to the upside but each subsequent move higher appear to lack that impulsive move. So I am view the bounce as corrective move of previous decline. Once done will revert to the downside. We will have to wait for the clarification. Thanks for your comments.
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Thank you for sharing your ideas. They are interesting material for thoughts:
- I agree about long term scenario
- Also it does look we have not started impulsive wave upwards yet. Therefore we are still within a correction.
- However I think this correction (wave iv) is forming a triangle. It is not a flat as you suggest. So far wave A is finished at $455 and we are probably still within wave B of this triangle. It is going to take another month or two to finish all remaining waves. Maybe even longer. We need this time to tire many participants who are overly optimistic at this stage.
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DanV MOD ryopphdi
If it does turn out to be a triangle, then I agree it will take a lot of time as that is that triangles do and it would be wave B, hence much stronger leg down in impulsive manner is still ahead of us. Triangle will whilst tire many as you say, will also get many both Bulls & Bears will try to stake their claim or make a stand in that congestion. Thanks for your observation, I will keep that in mind.
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- Not sure if I read you correctly but you seem to be saying that subwave B of 4 is a triangle.
- I meant big contracting triangle as wave 4. So most probably there won't be any new low as subwave A in contracting triangles is usually longest one.. Subwave A of this triangle ($455) was the lowest point. We are in subwave B upwards. Then we will experience subwave C which will not make new low.
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BTC current
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DanV MOD ryopphdi
I follow you up to 4.A.C. But not sure after that in your suggestion of low is in and you expect the 4.B to continue higher. EW counts don't conform to that. Normally 4.B on your chart is viewed as retracement of previous decline. Otherwise id the low for wave 4 is in then we should be in some sort of impulsive move to form wave 5 which could retest former high or make new higher high. It would be difficult to explain all this here.
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Let me be more specific: 4th wave is a triangle which is going to consist of five subwaves: 4.A, 4.B, 4.C, 4.D and 4.E. 4.A is already finished and we are probably still within 4.B. This is contracting triangle so 4.B is smaller than 4.A. And 4.C will be shorter than 4.B (which means it will not make lower low).
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BTC current2
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DanV MOD ryopphdi
I see, it would be a strange contracting triangle if it does form what you are describing. We will have to wait for more price data to clarify. Thanks for your comments.
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Could you just comment shortly why 'strange'? AFAIK it conforms to all EWT rules and guidelines. My picture is really simple and I expect triangle to be much more complex but wanted to present general idea. I am curious why 'strange'. Maybe I am missing something obvious but so far this idea looks much better to me than flat correction that you present. No offense intended - just want to hear why triangle scenario is not feasible in your opinion :)
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DanV MOD ryopphdi
I would not wish to impose my view on you, if you feel it is clear, then that is more important as your possible trades will be based on your analysis. I would only add that typically triangles form in wave 4 or wave B. If you can sketch if out on chart how think triangle will develop then I will take a look otherwise it is difficult explain it here.
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But WE ARE in wave 4. The structure that you describe as A-WXY-C is an ABCDE contracting triangle on my chart.

Maybe my notation is not familiar to you but 4.A means subwave A of bigger wave 4 and so on.
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DanV MOD ryopphdi
OK fair enough. I understand. We will have to let the price show how it is going to proceed.
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OK. Thank you for discussion. And I am still curious what is so strange about this triangle. But let us wait..
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Dear Dan, Is there any way we can talk in the next couple of days. I think we can repair some of what has happened, if you are open to this. Great chart, by the way. Sincerely, Beauty
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Update on Bullish Pitchfork - This not ideal. As normally you need for up trending pitchfork a Low , High and Low pivots. Due to parabolic rise, I cannot see the correct low to pivot the median line. So I have used a candle from where the fast move took place. Based on that you can see valid major price inter action with the projected lines (highlighted by squares). So, as it stands at the we could bounce in what is at present a down trending cycle, at various level as it drop to these lines but ultimately, could drop to 450-300 which I have pointed out several times. Hope this helps.
snapshot
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Also whilst in intermediate down trend - here is an update on my earlier 4Hr Chart with EW counst
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Following the price action today on Bitcoin, as explained earlier, that if the price went beyond 950 zone then I will have to review my analysis. That I have done and did so live explaining the reasons for my, which still remains that this is not an impulsive new up trend, but a bear market rally which is very strong admittedly. Many would say this is classic denial. So be it. I am still view this as Wave B retracement with implication for new down trend to resume on completion. Here is the revised chart, you can make your own decision.
snapshot
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Interresting analysis, thanks DanV. Enjoy seeing it from others' perspectives.
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Great, between us we can get the handle on this volatile instruments. Thank you for your comments.
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