ChartArt

The next 6 weeks will determine the Bitcoin price trend of 2015

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Since I pointed out at $325 that this could be the end of Bitcoin's 2014 downtrend (also meaning that there could be a rally) (https://www.tradingview.com/v/skfrVrQ2/) the price increased almost 40% up to $453.92 on Bitstamp . Sounds good. But then the same day it peaked also occurred a flash-crash, where the price crashed down to $381.55 in a very short amount of time and thereby essentially ruining the momentum of the entire previous rally (see also the chart created by SunnyBTC https://www.tradingview.com/v/C42cG0Bw/)

The problem is that for the rally to continue it now needs to break past the last peak of $453.92. The market always follows the path of least resistance. The next 6 weeks will determine the Bitcoin             price trend of 2015. We are now in week one of this key directional trend decision were Bitcoin             either falls below the 3 year average price and continues another year of price decline or bounces from this low price upwards to start a new extreme uptrend.

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14:44 UTC
Thursday, November 27, 2014, week 48
Current price: $371

The Bitcoin price is very close to the monthly pivot price. It can go up or down in a strong move as soon as the direction has cleared:

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03:20 UTC
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Current price: $357

The volume is almost dead and therefore signaling a big move is coming very soon. It could up or down, but I'm now more convinced that BTC goes down the upcoming days and therefore possibly invalidating my bullish hope

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19:23 UTC
Friday, November 21, 2014
Current price: $356

The last red Heiken candle is quite large. I doubt that this is the bottom until I see some stronger bullish volume with the first green candle:

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14:00 UTC
Thursday, November 20, 2014

Finally the direction has become clear after days of sideways movement:

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11:37 UTC
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Current price $375

The previously mentioned potential breakout to resume the uptrend was hit by a flash-crash after the news was released that the US marshals are going to auction 50K BTC very soon.


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01:55 UTC
Monday, November 17, 2014
Current price $398

It seems we have a breakout (not visible on this chart, but the new Heiken Ashi candle turned green) and we might resume the uptrend

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