Since I pointed out at $325 that this could be the end of Bitcoin's 2014 downtrend (also meaning that there could be a rally) (tradingview.com/v/skfrVrQ2/) the price increased almost 40% up to $453.92 on Bitstamp. Sounds good. But then the same day it peaked also occurred a flash-crash, where the price crashed down to $381.55 in a very short amount of time and thereby essentially ruining the momentum of the entire previous rally (see also the chart created by SunnyBTC tradingview.com/v/C42cG0Bw/)
The problem is that for the rally to continue it now needs to break past the last peak of $453.92. The market always follows the path of least resistance. The next 6 weeks will determine the Bitcoin price trend of 2015. We are now in week one of this key directional trend decision were Bitcoin either falls below the 3 year average price and continues another year of price decline or bounces from this low price upwards to start a new extreme uptrend.
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14:44 UTC
Thursday, November 27, 2014, week 48
Current price: $371
The Bitcoin price is very close to the monthly pivot price. It can go up or down in a strong move as soon as the direction has cleared:
ChartArt
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03:20 UTC
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Current price: $357
The volume is almost dead and therefore signaling a big move is coming very soon. It could up or down, but I'm now more convinced that BTC goes down the upcoming days and therefore possibly invalidating my bullish hope tradingview.com/v/LdUAOKwO/
ChartArt
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19:23 UTC
Friday, November 21, 2014
Current price: $356
The last red Heiken candle is quite large. I doubt that this is the bottom until I see some stronger bullish volume with the first green candle:
ChartArt
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14:00 UTC
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Finally the direction has become clear after days of sideways movement:
ChartArt
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11:37 UTC
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Current price $375
The previously mentioned potential breakout to resume the uptrend was hit by a flash-crash after the news was released that the US marshals are going to auction 50K BTC very soon.
ChartArt
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01:55 UTC
Monday, November 17, 2014
Current price $398
It seems we have a breakout (not visible on this chart, but the new Heiken Ashi candle turned green) and we might resume the uptrend
Thursday, November 27, 2014, week 48
Current price: $371
The Bitcoin price is very close to the monthly pivot price. It can go up or down in a strong move as soon as the direction has cleared: